FiveThirtyEight elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich has been studying recent polls and has seen a pattern in which Democrats have a very strong chance of taking over the Senate in November.
Rakich notes that new polls in Colorado, North Carolina, and Montana show that Democrats have gained the upper hand in the battle for the Senate.
“Some recent Senate polls have been so eye-popping that we’re compelled to write about them — if only to sound a note of caution,” he writes. “Those polls imply a Democratic wave of truly epic proportions.”
Democrats are gaining more momentum in states with Republican incumbents.
Two polls from Colorado show Democrat John Hickenlooper with leads of at least 17 points over incumbent Cory Gardner (R-CO), while a poll out of North Carolina shows challenger Cal Cunningham with a 9-point lead over Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC).
Even in deep-red Montana, former Gov. Steve Bullock holds a seven-point lead over Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT).
Rakich acknowledges that these polls are significantly better for Democrats than other polls conducted of these states, but he doesn’t believe they can be completely dismissed.
“The fact that they are even remotely plausible reflects a vulnerability for the GOP in the age of the coronavirus,” he writes. “Americans are souring on President Trump’s handling of the crisis, and congressional Republicans are reportedly worried that it will drag them down too. The pandemic has also devastated the economy, which has historically been bad news electorally for the party in the White House.”
You can read Rakich’s full report HERE.