Political scientist Rachel Bitecofer, a professor at Christopher Newport University, is predicting that the 2020 election will lean heavily towards Democrats and we could see a “blue tsunami.”
The Niskanen Center, which published Bitecofer’s analysis, summarizes her projection as “a blue tsunami” being the “likely outcome” of the 2020 elections.
Bitecofer noted that Republicans’ plan in Wisconsin backfired when the Supreme Court election went to the Democrats. She believes that this is a pattern that will follow to the November elections.
“Whatever 2020 turnout is, barring something extraordinary that disrupts the election, if more Democrats and left-leaning independents vote than did so in 2016 and pure independents break against Trump and congressional Republicans, Democrats will not only hold their 2018 House gains — they are poised to expand on their House majority and are competitive to take control of the Senate,” she writes.
Getting more granular and analyzing districts up for grabs, Bitecofer believes that “Democrats have at least a dozen very attractive prospects in the House to add to their already robust House majority” and that “Democrats are in superior positions in three of the four swing [Senate] races they need to win a 50-vote majority and have six prospects from which to glean their fourth seat.”