Donald Trump’s reckless spread of falsehoods about Haitian immigrants supposedly eating family pets in Ohio could have dire consequences for his support in Florida, experts warn.
Trump, who perpetuated this debunked claim during his recent debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, is a voter in Florida—a state he has long relied on as a Republican bastion. However, his latest misstep may jeopardize his standing in a state that has historically been a bellwether for national politics.
Florida, once a quintessential swing state, could tilt back toward Democrats, largely due to its significant Haitian-American population. The LA Times reports that the influence of this demographic could be pivotal in the upcoming elections.
“Trump won Florida twice, including a narrow 3-point victory in 2020,” the Times notes. “Since then, the state has leaned more Republican, as evidenced by Governor Ron DeSantis’s decisive reelection in 2022. Yet recent polls indicate Trump’s lead over Harris is shrinking to between 2 and 6 percentage points. With an abortion rights ballot initiative potentially energizing liberal voters, Democrats are hopeful for a comeback.”
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Florida’s Haitian-American community, numbering around 500,000, is the largest of its kind in the United States and predominantly votes Democratic. The Times underscores their growing political clout: “Haitian immigrants, who fled economic and political instability, now hold numerous seats in city and county commissions, state legislatures, and Congress. They are crucial to healthcare and other essential services throughout South Florida.”
Fernand Amandi, a Democratic pollster in Miami, suggests that while a Harris victory in Florida is not certain, it remains plausible. He estimates the Haitian-American voter base between 100,000 and 300,000 and points out their heightened motivation to support Harris, who has been a strong advocate for Caribbean interests.
Peter Henlein, a conservative Iraq War veteran and Florida resident, offers a critical view: “It’s really unlikely Trump is going to lose Florida….but I think there is a risk he does severe long term damage to the party here. We are a highly diverse state with 500k Haitians and 200k Indian Americans, and yet DeSantis was able to win here by 20 points without demonizing either group.”
Henlein questions the broader implications: “Do we want Trump to drive those people away from the GOP forever?” His dangerous rhetoric could erode Trump’s once-secure foothold in Florida, making the state’s electoral outcome more uncertain than ever.
