What was supposed to be a power move for Donald Trump and Republicans is now looking like a full-blown political misfire.
The GOP’s aggressive push to redraw congressional maps—starting with Texas—hasn’t strengthened their grip on the House. If anything, it’s done the opposite, according to CNN data analyst Harry Enten.
“Talk about one of your all-time backfires,” Enten said bluntly during a segment with Sara Sidner.
The numbers tell the story. Back when Republicans kicked off their redistricting effort in Texas, they had about a 33% chance of holding onto the House. Now? That number has cratered to just 14%.
In other words, the gamble didn’t just fail—it may have made things worse.
And it’s not just redistricting blowing up in their faces. The broader political environment is shifting, too—and not in Republicans’ favor.
Democrats have widened their lead on the generic congressional ballot from 3 points to 6 points since the redistricting push began. That kind of national momentum is hard to overcome, no matter how districts are drawn.
“You can only redistrict so many seats,” Enten explained. “At this point, Democrats have actually gained more.”
The combination is brutal for the GOP: a strategy that didn’t deliver, paired with a national mood trending against them.
For Democrats, though, the picture looks very different. A growing lead and improving odds are fueling confidence that a House majority could soon be back within reach.
For Republicans, what started as a calculated play to lock in power is now shaping up to be a costly political blunder.
Watch Enten’s analysis below from CNN:
