Come November, Donald Trump’s chances of winning the race for the Presidency are nearly slim to none according to a new election forecast model.
NBC News reports that Oxford Economics, which has a strong track record of forecasting presidential elections, has Trump almost certainly losing in November due to the economic recession that hit the country after the COVID-19 outbreak.
“An unemployment rate above its global financial crisis peak, household income nearly 6% below its pre-virus levels, and transitory deflation will make the economy a nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November,” the firm writes in explaining its latest forecast.
According to the model, Trump will receive just 35 percent of the votes this fall and it would “take nothing short of an economic miracle” for him to overcome that.
To put that number into perspective, no major party nominee has ever received just 35 percent of the vote. Even Herbert Hoover, who led the country into the Great Depression, managed to get 40 percent of the popular vote in 1932.
George H.W. Bush, who lost the 1992 election, got only 37 percent of the popular vote, which cost him to lose to Democratic challenger Bill Clinton.