Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers went to extraordinary lengths to redraw congressional districts in their favor, hoping to eliminate Democratic incumbents and protect their narrow House majority. But when voters went to the polls Tuesday, the results exposed just how badly the strategy had failed: Not a single Democratic incumbent directly targeted by the new Republican maps lost.
That’s right. After months of political maneuvering and an aggressive mid-decade redistricting campaign, Republicans failed to knock out even one of the Democrats they had specifically tried to push out of Congress. And in several states, the new maps did more than fail to deliver Republican victories. They helped put GOP-held seats in play, contributing to a wave of Democratic gains that ultimately handed the party control of the House.
The effort began last year, when Donald Trump pressured Republican-controlled states to redraw their congressional districts. At least eight GOP states took up the challenge, hoping to manufacture additional Republican seats before the midterms. At the height of the party’s optimism, Republicans expected the new maps to help flip as many as 16 Democratic districts.
Instead, the targeted Democrats won by large margins.
Among them were Texas Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez; Florida Reps. Kathy Castor and Jared Moskowitz; Ohio Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Greg Landsman; North Carolina Rep. Don Davis; and Alabama Rep. Shomari Figures. Florida Rep. Darren Soto was also holding a lead, although his race had not yet been called.
And the damage to the GOP didn’t stop there.
In Texas, Republicans had hoped their new map would help them capture five additional seats. Instead, Democrats defeated Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz in a district Trump had carried by 18 points in 2024. Democrats also won three other districts Republicans had expected to take, including the open 9th District.
Ohio delivered another setback. Democrats protected their incumbents in newly redrawn districts while flipping three Republican-held seats, including those represented by Reps. Mike Turner and Max Miller. In North Carolina, Democrats not only held Don Davis’s seat but were on track to capture as many as six GOP-held districts—some in deep-red territory that even Democratic operatives hadn’t expected to win.
Florida Republicans also fell short of their ambitions. Gov. Ron DeSantis defended the state’s new map, noting that Republicans controlled 20 seats before redistricting and were on track to hold the same number afterward. But Republicans had drawn those lines hoping to gain four additional seats. Democrats won two of the three incumbent races and captured the open 22nd District, while Soto remained in contention.
Other Republican targets and districts faced complications, too. In Tennessee, Republicans may have eliminated Cohen’s Democratic seat around Memphis, but GOP Rep. Scott DesJarlais suddenly found himself fighting for political survival in a district he had won with 70 percent of the vote in 2024. In Missouri, Republicans initially believed they had drawn Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver out of his seat, but the new map was blocked by the courts. Cleaver went on to win another term with nearly 70 percent of the vote.
Democrats also scored gains through their own redistricting effort in California, launched in response to Trump’s campaign. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Republicans had started a nationwide fight over congressional maps that Democrats ultimately finished.
Democratic Rep. Suzan DelBene, who leads the party’s House campaign operation, put the results more bluntly: “Simply put, their gerrymandering scheme absolutely backfired.” She warned Republicans that any further attempts to redraw districts for partisan advantage could carry serious political consequences.
To be clear, redistricting wasn’t the only factor behind the Republican defeat. The volatile economy, an unpopular war with Iran, and Trump’s deeply underwater approval ratings all contributed to the GOP’s problems on Election Day.
But the central irony is that Republicans changed the rules of the political map to make it harder for Democrats to win. They targeted Democratic incumbents, expected to eliminate as many as 16 seats, and believed they were protecting their majority.
Not one of those targeted Democratic incumbents went down. And while Republicans were busy trying to redraw their way to victory, Democrats were busy winning the seats that cost them control of the House.
