Economist data journalist G. Elliott Morris broke down a poll that was released on Wednesday that showed Donald Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden by 14 points.
According to Morris, the newly released NYT/Siena College poll shows that Trump is in a deep hole that will be nearly impossible to dig himself out of.
“Worth noting that while historically polling averages during June have predicted Nov outcomes with a margin of error close to 14 points on vote margin, June polls in the polarized era have a [margin of error] close to just 6,” he explained. “Trump is in a deep, deep hole and uncertainty alone won’t dig him out.”
Morris went on to say that even “if the 2020 race reverts to the mean, Biden is still up by 7-8 points and very likely handily winning the electoral college,” despite the president’s advantage in Rust Belt states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
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“People keep saying the race will tighten, but it only seems to be getting worse for Trump,” he notes.
Worth noting that while historically polling averages during June have predicted Nov outcomes with a margin of error close to 14 pts on vote margin, June polls in the polarized era have a MOE close to just 6.
Trump is in a deep, deep hole and uncertainty alone won't dig him out. https://t.co/YdXKW9jbGH
— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) June 24, 2020
If the 2020 race reverts to the mean, Biden is still up by 7-8 points and very likely handily winning the electoral college https://t.co/zLmw0wZ1an
— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) June 24, 2020
People keep saying the race will tighten, but it only seems to be getting worse for Trump
— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) June 24, 2020
In conclusion, things aren’t looking too well for Trump and he would need something close to a miracle to overcome this deficit.
You can read more on the poll HERE.
