A large asteroid is speeding toward Earth, and it has recently moved to the top of NASA’s risk list. This asteroid, called 2024 YR4, is getting a lot of attention from experts. NASA’s Planetary Defense Team, which monitors asteroids and comets that come within 30 million miles of Earth, is now focusing on 2024 YR4. The asteroid was first spotted on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (Atlas) in Chile. It’s about 300 feet (90 meters) wide.
Right now, 2024 YR4 is millions of miles away, but scientists warn that it could hit Earth by December 2032. If it does, it would enter our atmosphere at speeds of 38,000 mph and could cause damage equivalent to 100 nuclear bombs. While space agencies are closely monitoring this asteroid, the real question is what would happen if it collided with Earth. The chances of that happening have recently been upgraded, making people wonder if we should be worried.
Initially, experts estimated the chances of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth at about one in 83. However, after the asteroid changed its trajectory toward Earth, that probability has now been updated to one in 43, or roughly a 2.3% chance. NASA has said that the chances of a collision remain “extremely low,” but they have asked the James Webb Space Telescope to keep an eye on it. The situation is still being monitored closely by space agencies around the world.
Experts have also been looking into ways to stop asteroids from crashing into Earth. One option is to try to deflect them before they reach us. In 2022, NASA successfully tested a method called the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (Dart), where they nudged an asteroid called Dimorphos into a new orbit. Although Dimorphos wasn’t a threat, the test showed that deflecting an asteroid might be possible. However, the mission took seven years to complete, and with only about seven years left until 2024 YR4 could potentially hit Earth, some experts worry that there may not be enough time to act.
Dr. Robin George Andrews, a science journalist, told The Sun: “They can do this. But you want as many years as possible. It’s a bit tight.” Professor Brian Cox also shared his thoughts on social media, saying, “If the probability remains this high, we’ll need to prepare a deflection mission—this would be a good investment even if we don’t end up needing it.”
Another option being explored, particularly by China, is using a spacecraft to crash into the asteroid. Dr. Andrews believes the European Space Agency should consider putting more funding into this type of mission. He explained, “Planetary defense is remarkably cheap. The Dart mission cost about $325 million, which sounds like a lot, but it’s the price of a high-end luxury yacht.”
In 2022, an asteroid entered Earth’s atmosphere above Iceland, and experts have also been studying asteroid fragments collected from space. While there is still a lot to figure out, space agencies are working hard to monitor 2024 YR4 and prepare for any potential threat.
While still an extremely low possibility, asteroid 2024 YR4's impact probability with Earth has increased from about 1% to a 2.3% chance on Dec. 22, 2032. As we observe the asteroid more, the impact probability will become better known. More: https://t.co/VWiASTMBDi pic.twitter.com/Z1mpb4UPaC
— NASA Asteroid Watch (@AsteroidWatch) February 7, 2025
