Ken Paxton has spent years building his political identity around Donald Trump.
Now, the Texas Republican Senate candidate has been caught on tape appearing to blame Trump’s midterm convention for a slump in his campaign numbers.
“To be honest with you,” Paxton said when asked whether Trump was “a drag,” according to audio obtained by The New York Times.
“So to be honest with you, the numbers — when we did that convention — it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped,” Paxton said. “Right now, yeah, not good.”
That is a remarkably candid assessment from a candidate running for the Senate with Trump’s endorsement.
The recording was made at a private fundraising event in Washington, D.C., by someone opposed to Paxton’s campaign and was subsequently provided to The New York Times.
And the timing couldn’t be more awkward.
Trump’s first Republican midterm convention was held in Dallas earlier this month with a straightforward goal: energize Republicans heading into the November 3 elections.
Paxton attended the event and appeared alongside Trump.
But according to Paxton’s own comments, the numbers went in the wrong direction afterward.
“Everybody’s numbers dropped,” he said.
The comments also put Paxton at odds with Trump’s own assessment of the convention.
Trump declared the event a major success and later suggested it had helped Paxton’s Senate campaign.
“The fact that we had such a successful convention really helped Ken Paxton,” Trump said. “He was a big part of it.”
Trump added that he had heard the convention had helped Paxton “a lot.”
But recent polling tell a very different story.
A September Marist poll found Democratic Rep. James Talarico leading Paxton 50% to 44% among registered Texas voters. The survey was conducted September 17–20 and had a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
Paxton’s campaign has disputed the public polling that shows Talarico ahead.
Senior Paxton adviser Nick Maddux dismissed The New York Times report as “manipulated nonsense” and said the campaign’s internal polling showed Paxton leading Talarico 48% to 45%.
“Ken Paxton is going to win this race,” Maddux said, adding that Paxton looked forward to campaigning alongside Trump.
So the campaign is presenting one picture publicly. Paxton’s private comments provide another.
Paxton has been one of Trump’s most prominent political allies in Texas. Trump endorsed him in the Republican Senate primary, helping cement Paxton’s position as the GOP nominee after a bitter primary battle.
Yet the candidate now appears to be acknowledging that Trump’s convention played a role in the decline of his campaign numbers.
That is particularly awkward given how much Trump has invested politically in the Texas race.
The Senate contest has become one of the more closely watched races in the country because Texas is normally considered a Republican stronghold.
Talarico, a Democratic state representative, is now challenging Paxton in a race that has drawn national attention.
Paxton also brings considerable political baggage into the contest.
In 2023, the Texas House impeached him on 16 articles involving allegations including abuse of office, bribery and obstruction. The Texas Senate subsequently acquitted him on all 16 articles.
He has continued to face political controversies, while his personal life has also drawn scrutiny.
Now his campaign has another problem to explain: a recording in which Paxton complains that the centerpiece of Trump’s effort to energize Republican voters may have hurt his own numbers.
