President Donald Trump’s path to reelection is getting more complicated according to one of the first major national polls released after the Republican National Convention, which shows Democratic nominee Joe Biden with an almost double-digit lead over Trump.
According to the survey, conducted by veteran pollster Ann Selzer for Grinnell College, Biden leading 49 percent to 41 percent, on the strength of a huge advantage among female voters, suburbanites and Americans with a college degree.
A post-convention survey conducted by Morning Consult also found Biden holding an 8 point lead over Trump, 51 percent to 43 percent.
The former Vice President leads among women by a 56 percent to 34 percent margin, a wider gender gap than former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton received in 2016 and larger even than the 19-point advantage House Democratic candidates earned over Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections when they reclaimed control of the chamber.
Democrats won back the House with the help of suburban voters, who split their support equally between the two major parties, according to exit polls. Trump won suburban voters 49 percent to 45 percent in 2016.
Now, Biden leads the suburbs by a 58 percent to 35 percent margin. Among those suburban residents, Biden is ahead with women by a 64 percent to 31 percent margin, a sign that the most coveted voters in the electorate are rejecting the erratic incumbent.
“Among suburban women, the president’s numbers are terrible,” said Peter Hanson, a political scientist at Grinnell College who directed the poll. “If the president’s coalition is going to consist of non-college-educated white men, evangelicals and seniors, then he’s going to have a hard time.”
Both Trump and Biden are solid among their respective bases; 90 percent of Republicans plan to vote for Trump, and 95 percent of Democrats say they will support Biden, according to the Grinnell poll. But among voters with no party affiliation, Biden leads 44 percent to 34 percent. And he’s winning over self-professed moderates by a 55 percent to 33 percent margin.
“It’s really difficult to see the president winning the national popular vote. I just think that’s out of his reach. The only question now is whether he can put together a narrow majority in battleground states. That’s his only path,” Hanson said.
