Donald Trump started 2025 on a high, fresh off a historic election win. Now he’s ending the year in freefall, according to multiple polls.
RealClearPolitics shows his overall approval at 44 percent, but some individual polls are far worse. The latest AP-NORC survey has just 36 percent of U.S. adults approving of his performance, while 61 percent disapprove. Loyal supporters are holding the line, but the cracks in Trump’s coalition are widening.
Trump rode to victory in 2024 on anger over the economy, inflation, and immigration. Those same issues are now dragging him down. Approval for his handling of the economy is only 31 percent — down 10 points since March — with two-thirds disapproving. Immigration, once a core strength, now sits at 38 percent, down from 49 percent earlier in the year. His heavy-handed deportation policies are part of the problem. While “nearly half of Americans said increasing security” at the southern border should be a “high priority,” only about three in ten think deporting immigrants already here should be a “high priority,” according to AP-NORC.
Trump is also underwater on inflation and the cost of living. An Economist-YouGov poll shows only 33 percent approve of his handling of inflation, while 60 percent disapprove. Meanwhile, the margin of Americans who think the country is heading in the right direction versus the wrong direction has dropped to minus-21, double the negative margin from shortly after his inauguration.
Even his base is questioning him. Trump’s signature economic policy, tariffs, is losing support. Only 22 percent of his 2024 voters say tariffs are helping the economy now and in the long term. Among self-described “MAGA Republicans,” 27 percent say tariffs are boosting the economy, while 21 percent admit they are damaging in both the short and long term.
The midterm picture is grim. Democrats hold a 4-point lead in the generic congressional vote, and Republicans risk losing their “long advantage on dealing with the economy,” according to one GOP strategist. Historical trends and current polling suggest the House could slip from Republican control next year.
Messaging misfires aren’t helping. Trump’s rallies have done little to reassure voters. In Pennsylvania last week, he told Americans they “do not need 37 dolls for your daughter,” a bizarre attempt to show he’s in touch with everyday concerns. Health care is another problem: 50 percent of Americans report skipping checkups or prescriptions due to rising costs, according to Politico. Without legislative action to stabilize premiums, this could be a disaster for Republicans in 2026.
Administration officials insist Americans will see the benefits of the “Big, Beautiful Bill” and other economic investments next year. But with only 11 months to turn the tide, the numbers are clear: Trump is ending 2025 in freefall, and 2026 could be even worse.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”
