Donald Trump just got hit with more bad news: independent voters—the same group that helped him win in 2024—are now abandoning him in record numbers ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Data from Decision Desk HQ show Trump’s net approval among independents has plunged to a record low for his second term. Disapproval among this group has surged above 60%, the highest level since he returned to office. Overall, his approval ratings also declined in June.
“Right now, the independents are the moving factor,” said Scott Tranter, Decision Desk HQ’s director of data science. “He’s holding his base … that’s why you see it.”
This shift matters. In 2024, Trump eked out a nine-point swing toward independents compared to 2020, per Pew Research, helping him snatch key battleground states . Now, polling from sources like YouGov/Economist, Quinnipiac, and Emerson College show him trailing by 12–30 points with this group .
One national survey tied to the Independent Center found only 37% of registered voters approved of Trump’s performance. It also flagged slumping support on issues independents find most urgent—lowering the debt, taming inflation, and getting prices under control .
“Voters want something to be done about the economy … and if you can’t do that, you really, probably can’t win them over at the end of the day,” said Lura Forcum of the Independent Center .
That echoes a broader national mood: the S&P 500 hit a record, but inflation has rebounded and first‑quarter GDP shrank more than expected.
Tough headlines for a president who built his brand on booming markets and economic dominance.
Republican pollster Christopher Nicholas warned that lower approval isn’t just Trump’s problem—it drags down GOP candidates too.
“A Republican running for governor in Pennsylvania would have a much easier time if Trump’s approval rating is 48 percent rather than 42 percent,” he explained, noting Trump currently averages 45.8% approval in DDHQ’s overall rating.
The worry is time is slipping away. As Nicholas put it, “The longer you’re around … the harder it becomes, because now you have to change people’s minds, get them back to neutral and then move them to favorable.”
Still, some in the GOP are looking beyond Trump. On the generic congressional ballot—where voters choose between Republican or Democratic candidates—they’re tied at 45.1% each . That measure, many say, is a more important predictor heading into 2026 when Trump won’t be on the ballot .
But the heart of Trump’s 2024 victory was his broader coalition—blacks, Hispanics, young voters and independents. Without key independent backing, that coalition is unraveling.
If independents stay home in 2026, the GOP could face a landslide reversal. As one Republican strategist soberly noted, missing voters is slightly less damaging than them flipping—but it is still a grim forecast.
