A political earthquake may be rumbling in Texas — and Republicans are starting to notice.
In a stunning reversal from past election cycles, Democrats are turning out in Texas primaries at higher rates than Republicans, something that hasn’t happened in more than two decades.
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said he was “mind blown” by the numbers.
As of Wednesday morning, 53 percent of ballots cast in Texas primaries came from registered Democrats, compared to 47 percent from Republicans. At the same point in the 2022 midterms, Democrats accounted for just 38 percent of ballots cast.
The shift is dramatic — and potentially ominous for the GOP.
“This hasn’t been close since 2002,” Enten noted, underscoring how rare it is for Democrats to outpace Republicans in Texas, long considered a Republican stronghold.
As noted by The Daily Beast, the surge comes amid a broader trend: Democrats have consistently overperformed in special elections and off-year contests since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025. Now, the Lone Star State — once thought safely red — may be showing early signs of competitive realignment.
“What a shift from where we were four years ago,” Enten said. “At this point, more people in Texas are picking up the Democratic ballot.”
Historically, higher primary turnout has often foreshadowed which party gains momentum heading into the general election. In past midterm cycles — including 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022 — the party with stronger primary enthusiasm frequently went on to win control of the U.S. House.
With Republicans currently holding only a slim majority in Congress, even modest erosion in red-leaning states could have outsized national consequences.
Texas voters are casting ballots in key statewide and congressional races, including the governor’s race, a U.S. Senate seat, and several high-profile House contests. Among them is Rep. Tony Gonzales, a Republican facing scrutiny amid allegations involving a former aide.
Early voting began February 17, with Election Day set for March 3.
For decades, Republicans have relied on Texas as a cornerstone of their national electoral strategy. But if Democrats continue closing the turnout gap — or surpassing it — the political map could look very different in November.
And for the GOP, that possibility alone is enough to raise alarm bells.
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