President Donald Trump erupted online after new numbers showed the U.S. economy shrank for the first time in three years — and he immediately blamed former President Joe Biden, not his own policies.
The U.S. economy dropped by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, catching many analysts off guard. Instead of owning any part of the downturn, Trump took to Truth Social to lash out.
“This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s,” Trump wrote. “I didn’t take over until January 20th. Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers. Our Country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden ‘Overhang.’ This will take a while, has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS, only that he left us with bad numbers… BE PATIENT!!!”
But the numbers tell a different story.
The economy took a hit in large part due to a massive spike in imports — as businesses rushed to bring in goods ahead of Trump’s new tariffs. Imports surged 41.3%, the biggest jump since records began in 1947. At the same time, exports rose just 1.8%. When imports outweigh exports, it drags GDP down.
This import-export gap was the single biggest drag on the economy in the first quarter, economists say.
The decline came after a strong 2.4% GDP growth in the last quarter of Biden’s term. That’s a stark contrast — and one that undercuts Trump’s attempts to pin the blame elsewhere.
Despite warnings from economists that Trump’s aggressive trade tactics could backfire, Trump pushed forward with sweeping tariffs on both allies and rivals. His so-called “Liberation Day” plan to remake global trade has rattled markets and created uncertainty across supply chains.
S&P Global Ratings warned earlier this year: “We anticipate a marked slowdown in the U.S. economy… driven by increasing policy uncertainty surrounding trade, tariffs, and immigration.”
Even with some areas like unemployment and business investment holding steady, inflation and consumer confidence are still shaky. Consumer spending dropped to 1.8%, down sharply from 4% in the previous quarter. That’s the weakest it’s been since mid-2023.
Stock futures took a hit after the GDP report was released. The Dow dropped 315 points. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures also slid.
Meanwhile, Trump continues to insist the tariffs aren’t to blame.
Gregory Daco, chief economist at Ernst & Young, said while a recession isn’t confirmed yet, the signs are concerning.
“I don’t think we can call a recession from this data right now, but it is a sign that we’re on this razor-thin edge,” he told CNN. “The longer the tariffs remain in place, the more likely we are headed for an economic downturn.”
Still, Trump refuses to accept responsibility. Instead, he’s doubling down on the narrative that Biden is to blame — despite taking office more than three months ago and introducing the very tariffs that economists say are slowing growth.
