For years, Sen. Susan Collins has managed to survive tough elections by positioning herself as the Republican who was always “concerned.”
Now, a new poll suggests that strategy may finally be wearing thin.
According to a University of New Hampshire survey conducted July 15-20, Democrat Troy Jackson has pulled ahead of Collins in Maine’s pivotal Senate race, giving Democrats an early boost in one of the country’s most closely watched contests.
The poll found Jackson leading Collins 49% to 46% among likely voters, with 5% still undecided or backing another candidate. Among independent voters—a group Collins has long relied on—Jackson also holds a narrow advantage, 46% to 42%, the New York Times reports.
While Jackson has not officially secured the Democratic nomination, he’s widely expected to do so after dominating the delegate count at county conventions ahead of Saturday’s state convention.
If the numbers hold, Collins could be facing the toughest reelection fight of her nearly three decades in the Senate.
The poll also revealed a striking contrast in how voters view the two candidates.
Jackson, a logger, former Maine Senate president, and progressive backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, posted a net-positive favorability rating of 37% favorable to 32% unfavorable.
Collins, meanwhile, was underwater, with 53% viewing her unfavorably compared to just 35% favorably.
Among independents, the gap was even more dramatic.
Jackson’s favorability was nearly even, while Collins posted a deeply negative rating.
The findings are especially significant because Collins is the only Republican senator seeking reelection in a state Donald Trump lost in 2024, making Maine one of Democrats’ clearest pickup opportunities if they hope to reclaim control of the Senate.
Collins brushed off Jackson’s emergence Tuesday.
“I’ve known him for many, many years,” she told NBC News, arguing that he has moved sharply to the left and is now aligned with democratic socialists.
Jackson didn’t let the jab go unanswered.
He mocked Collins’ longtime habit of expressing concern without taking meaningful action, posting on X that “Working Mainers can’t afford six more years of ‘concern.'”
The race also unfolds as Collins faces mounting criticism back home.
Earlier this month, protesters gathered outside her office after a 26-year-old man was killed in an ICE-involved shooting in Maine. Demonstrators accused Collins of helping enable immigration policies they say lack meaningful oversight, chanting, “Vote her out.”
The senator has also drawn renewed public attention after recently revealing she has lived for years with a benign essential tremor, a condition she said has no impact on her ability to serve.
But for the first time in this cycle, Collins is looking up at a Democratic challenger in the polls, a warning sign for one of the GOP’s most vulnerable incumbents and a potential bright spot for Democrats hoping to flip the Senate.
