A new analysis of a poll from the Senate race in Iowa shows that the Republican Party is in a lot of trouble as we head into the elections.
“Fresh off a four-way primary race that drew millions in outside spending, Democrat Theresa Greenfield leads Republican Sen. Joni Ernst by 3 percentage points in Iowa’s hotly contested U.S. Senate race, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows,” the newspaper reported Saturday. “According to the poll, 46% of likely voters say they would back Greenfield if the election were held today, and 43% say they would back Ernst.”
The poll was conducted by J. Ann Selzer of Selzer & Company.
“This is definitely a competitive race,” Selzer declared.
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“This feels like a little bit of a canary in the coal mine,” Five Thirty Eight founder Nate Silver posted on Twitter. “If this race is competitive, the GOP is in a lot of trouble in a lot of places.”
Mike Madrid, cofounder of the Lincoln Project – the Republican anti-Trump group – agreed with the analysis made by Silver.
“That’s why we went up two days ago in Iowa. We think it’s in play and there’s still downside in this state,” Madrid wrote.
“The Republican base/floor is very soft. We’re punching through in Iowa, Wisconsin & Kentucky,” he argued. “Same demographic.”
That’s why we went up two days ago in Iowa. We think it’s in play and there’s still downside in this state. The Republican base/floor is very soft. We’re punching through in Iowa, Wisconsin & Kentucky. Same demographic. #LincolnProjectEffect https://t.co/hnwUIyUbz8
— Mike Madrid (@madrid_mike) June 13, 2020
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