A new Des Moines Register poll showing a surge in support for Vice President Kamala Harris among Iowa’s independent women has sent shockwaves through the Trump campaign. The poll, conducted by renowned Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer, suggests that Harris holds a narrow lead in the traditionally red state, with a significant boost from female voters—particularly independent women.
The survey reveals that Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 28 points among independent women and by a staggering 35 points among women over the age of 65 in Iowa. While both parties acknowledge that Iowa remains a challenging state for Democrats, many believe that this shift in women’s enthusiasm could signal a broader national trend, particularly among women voters.
“What the Iowa Poll shows is that more independent women are showing up than independent men,” said one Republican strategist, highlighting the increasing role of women in shaping the election’s outcome.
The strategist further speculated that these independent women voters—who tend to be more fluid in their political allegiances—are likely to swing decisively toward Harris, with women making up a significant portion of the undecided electorate. “No one knows who these nonpartisan voters are,” the strategist added, “but they tend to be women, and that could play a pivotal role.”
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The growing support for Harris among Iowa women has led some to connect the shift to the ongoing national debate over reproductive rights. Iowa, where most abortions are banned after six weeks, has seen a resurgence of activism on this issue, and many speculate that the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision has fueled women’s mobilization at the polls.
Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for American Women in Politics at Rutgers University, pointed out that the Dobbs decision has had a profound impact on women’s political engagement. “What we’re seeing is a direct reaction to the loss of a right many women believed was fundamental to their autonomy,” Walsh said. “The reality of life in states like Iowa—where abortion access is severely restricted—is likely pushing more women toward Harris.”
However, some Republicans remain skeptical that abortion rights alone will drive voter turnout. They argue that while abortion access may be a decisive issue for some, persuadable voters are more likely to prioritize other concerns, such as the economy. “The economy is always the primary issue in any election,” Walsh acknowledged. “But when you take away someone’s rights, as we saw with the Dobbs decision, it shifts the dynamic.”
In 2022, Democratic candidates performed better than expected in competitive states, largely due to voter mobilization around reproductive rights. Harris has continued to lean into this issue in her own campaign, with a sharp focus on protecting abortion access as the election nears.
The Des Moines Register poll comes at a time when the presidential race is increasingly being framed as a contest between male and female candidates. Historically, women have been more inclined to support Democratic candidates, while men have tended to lean Republican. Strategists note that while Trump’s populist messaging has resonated with male voters, Harris’s focus on abortion rights has sparked increased enthusiasm among women voters.
“As long as women continue to show up in strong numbers for the Democratic candidate, in this case Harris, they can counterbalance the male vote,” said Walsh.
In fact, a new poll from PBS News/NPR/Marist released on Monday showed the gender gap between Trump and Harris narrowing. In the previous months, Trump had led Harris by a significant margin among male voters, but the latest poll shows Trump’s lead shrinking to just 51% among men, compared to 47% for Harris.
Despite the rising enthusiasm for Harris among women, the Trump campaign has dismissed the Des Moines Register poll as an “outlier,” with Trump’s team pointing to a more favorable Emerson College poll that shows Trump leading Harris by 10 points overall, and by 5 points among women and 7 points among independents. The Trump campaign also referenced the 2020 election results, where Trump tied Joe Biden at 49% among women voters, as evidence that Harris’s lead is not likely to hold.
“It’s an outlier for sure,” said Dan Eberhart, a Trump donor, dismissing the poll’s findings. “Iowa is a cheap date. If the race were really that close, Harris would be spending heavily in the state.”
But other Republicans cautioned against dismissing the poll outright, noting that J. Ann Selzer’s work has a strong reputation for accuracy. “She’s no joke; she’s the real deal,” said one Republican strategist, who asked to remain anonymous. “It’s not like one of those random polls you see on the internet.”
As the campaign heats up, the gender gap could play a pivotal role in determining the outcome, with women voters emerging as a key battleground in the 2024 election. For Harris and the Democrats, Iowa may offer a glimpse into how their message resonates with women across the country—especially as the fight over reproductive rights continues to energize female voters.
