In the latest national poll by The New York Times and Siena College, Vice President Kamala Harris has edged ahead of former President Donald Trump. The poll, released on Tuesday, indicates Harris leads Trump by three points among likely voters, with 49 percent to Trump’s 46 percent in a direct matchup.
When the survey expanded to include multiple candidates, Harris maintained her three-point advantage, scoring 47 percent compared to Trump’s 44 percent. In this broader scenario, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver each garnered 1 percent, with no other candidates registering more than half a point.
A notable aspect of the poll is how respondents perceive each candidate’s ability to represent change. Here, Harris is seen as the more transformative figure, with 46 percent of voters choosing her over Trump’s 44 percent. Just 2 percent believe both candidates represent change, while 4 percent see neither as a change agent, and another 4 percent were undecided.
The poll highlighted Harris’s strong support among non-white and younger voters. Among non-white respondents, 61 percent identified her as the candidate representing change, while only 29 percent viewed Trump similarly. Among voters aged 18-29, 58 percent considered Harris to be the candidate of change, compared to 34 percent for Trump.
This marks the first time since July that Harris has led in The Times/Siena poll, especially notable after the candidates were tied at 47 percent in the wake of their recent debate.
As the campaign enters its final phase, with less than a month until Election Day, the race remains highly competitive. Key battleground states, where margins are tight, will likely determine the outcome. National averages also reflect a close contest, with Harris leading Trump by 3.4 points, 50 percent to 46.6 percent.
The latest poll was conducted between September 29 and October 6, surveying 3,385 likely voters, with a margin of sampling error of 2.4 percentage points.
