The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan political analysis group, has shifted five House races toward the Democratic Party, indicating growing momentum for Democrats in the Midwest.
In Iowa, two races are now categorized as toss-ups, with Democrats aiming to unseat Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the 1st Congressional District and Rep. Zach Nunn in the 3rd. Analysts note that Miller-Meeks is considered a “uniquely weak” incumbent, while Nunn’s Democratic challenger has demonstrated strong fundraising capabilities.
These Iowa races join a total of just 25 toss-up races across the country as both parties vie for control of the House of Representatives.
In Illinois and Indiana, the contests for two Democratic incumbents have strengthened from “lean” to “likely” Democratic. Rep. Eric Sorensen is running for reelection in Illinois’s 17th Congressional District, while Rep. Frank J. Mrvan is campaigning in Indiana’s 1st. According to Cook, Vice President Harris is projected to secure both districts “by a healthy margin,” which could provide a boost for Democratic candidates down the ballot.
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Additionally, the race for Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke’s seat in Montana’s 1st Congressional District has shifted from “likely” to “lean” Republican. Zinke’s challenger, Democrat Monica Tranel, narrowly missed an upset in the previous midterms. While Zinke still leads in fundraising, recent polling indicates a tighter race than anticipated. A Democratic victory in this district could significantly aid Montana Democrats as they work to protect vulnerable Sen. Jon Tester.
These recent changes follow a previous update where Cook adjusted half a dozen House races toward Democrats and two toward Republicans, with 15 toss-up races for Republican-held seats and 11 for those held by Democrats.
As the GOP maintains a slim majority in the House, Democrats need to gain just four seats to reclaim control this fall. A forecast model from Decision Desk HQ suggests Republicans have a 71 percent chance of winning the Senate, but only a 55 percent chance of maintaining their House majority.
In the presidential race, Harris and former President Trump are locked in a competitive battle. The latest polling averages show Harris with a slight edge of about 3 points nationwide, garnering 50 percent support compared to Trump’s 47 percent, with both candidates closely contesting key battleground states.
