Just 100 days into Donald Trump’s return to the White House, cracks are starting to show in one of his key bases: Arizona. From rising prices to fear over cuts to vital programs, even some of Trump’s most loyal backers are getting uneasy — and saying so out loud.
Tamara Varga, a devout Christian and lifelong Republican, still considers herself a Trump supporter. She runs the Special Eats Café in Tucson, a restaurant and food truck business that hires people with disabilities — including her own sons. She sees her work as a calling.
“It is my passion. And it is my calling. This what I am supposed to be doing, and it fulfills my life, and it blesses me,” she said.
But that passion comes with pressure — and questions. Varga is worried about where Trump’s second term is heading.
“I’m feeling good about a lot of the promises that he made on the campaign, but I am worried about a few things as well,” she said. At the top of her list: Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.
“He did say that he was not going to cut them. That he was just going to find waste and I really hope that he sticks to that,” she told CNN. “I am not for slashing. It’s important because we need to take care of people with disabilities and our elderly and those that depend on it. And they can’t survive as it is right now. We cannot cut.”
Asked if she trusts Trump to keep his word, Varga was frank: “I worry about it, but I’m hopeful.”
Even her business is feeling the squeeze. “It is causing some disruption,” she said of Trump’s tariff policies. “We make gift baskets, and I have noticed that the items we put in our gift baskets have gone up.”
For now, she’s giving Trump the benefit of the doubt — but it won’t last forever. “If he doesn’t come through, though, he’s going to have a lot of people turning on him.”
And that turn may already be underway.
Across Arizona and other battleground states, many independent voters who supported Trump in both the 2016 and 2024 elections are now expressing dissatisfaction. Economic challenges — rising costs, supply chain issues, and fears of a looming recession driven by tariff threats — are at the core of their frustration.
Recent polls show Trump’s support among independents has dropped sharply — now averaging 25 percentage points underwater. These are the very voters who gave him the edge in swing states like Arizona. If they walk away, his path forward narrows fast.
In southern Arizona, near the border, the unease is just as visible. Matt Mandel, an executive at SunFed, a major produce distributor, says tariff uncertainty is crippling.
“We have talk about tariffs, and then the tariffs are off. We have tariffs. They came into play for three days. They were canceled,” Mandel said. “But the constant threat of ‘what if’ makes it very hard for us to plan.”
He doesn’t understand why food imports are being targeted. “Food does not make sense (to tariff) at all. All you are going to do is raise those costs to consumers,” Mandel said.
Those higher prices are already changing shopper behavior, according to local retailer Flores. “We’re seeing numbers dropping 7–8% around the system right now,” he said. “There’s some fear of spending that extra money out.”
Flores calls himself a true independent and gives Trump a score of 5 out of 10 so far. “I’m a little bewildered about how they have gone about things,” he said. “It seems a bit haphazard.”
Veterans and Activists Fight Back
Melissa Cordero, an Air Force veteran and progressive organizer, is furious. She lost a federal conservation grant tied to diversity programming and is seeing services dry up for her fellow vets.
“There’s no one answering the phones,” she said of the VA. “Mental health, just cutting, making cuts in that area. That’s what all of us veterans need the most.”
“I’m angry because the communities I care most about are being attacked,” she added. “The LGBTQ community, the trans community. What’s really got me angry is immigration and what’s happening to deported veterans.”
Trump still has loyal defenders. But more and more Arizonans — especially independents — are warning that their support is not guaranteed.
“I agree with some of what he’s doing,” Varga said. “But things better change or he’s going to lose me, even.”
