The honeymoon is looking increasingly over for some of Donald Trump’s voters.
A new University of Massachusetts-Amherst poll finds that roughly 15 percent of people who voted for Trump in 2024 say they would vote differently or might not vote at all if they had the chance to do it over again, providing evidence of what the poll’s co-director described as “clear, consistent signs” of an erosion trend in Trump’s political base.
The numbers show something Republicans and the White House have every reason to watch closely: voters who put Trump back in the Oval Office are now regretting their decision.
“There are no takebacks in electoral politics,” said Alexander Theodoridis, co-director of the UMass-Amherst poll. “But around 15 percent of Trump voters now tell us they might or would vote differently or not vote at all if they had it to do over again.”
That figure, Theodoridis said, could have been decisive in an election that Trump won by relatively narrow margins.
“This is hardly a mass exodus from the Trump tent,” he said. “More notably, though, there are now clear, consistent signs of an erosion trend.”
And the erosion shows up in several different ways.
Only 58 percent of Trump voters now say they are very confident they made the “right choice” in 2024.
That’s down sharply from 74 percent in April 2025.
Meanwhile, the number of Trump voters who say they have mixed feelings about their vote has more than doubled, rising from 4 percent to 9 percent.
Another 3 percent say they “would vote differently if I could,” compared with 2 percent previously.
That’s not exactly the kind of trend a political operation wants to see.
Even Republicans are backing away
Trump’s problems aren’t limited to voters who may have supported him reluctantly.
Among self-identified Republicans, approval of Trump’s job performance has fallen to 75 percent.
That’s down from 89 percent in April 2025, 84 percent in July 2025 and 81 percent in March.
Trump’s overall strong-approval number has also taken a hit.
Just 14 percent of all respondents now say they strongly approve of his job performance, down from 21 percent in July 2025.
Another 18 percent somewhat approve, a modest increase from 17 percent.
The result is a president whose political support is still substantial but showing unmistakable signs of weakening in the polling.
The White House doesn’t appear particularly interested in conceding the point.
Asked about the poll by The Independent, the administration pointed instead to a Sunday post from Trump attacking polling organizations.
“THE FAKE POLLS USED BY OUR CROOKED MEDIA ARE OUT OF CONTROL, AND SOMETHING MUST BE DONE ABOUT IT,” Trump wrote.
One area where voters appear especially unimpressed is the economy.
Only 7 percent of respondents said Trump has performed “very well” at handling inflation.
That’s significant because inflation remains a major concern for Americans.
Consumer prices rose 3.4 percent over the 12 months ending July 31, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Iran is another political problem
Trump’s handling of Iran is also taking a beating.
Only 10 percent of respondents said Trump is doing “very well” handling Iran.
That’s down from 21 percent in July 2025 and 16 percent in March, shortly after Trump launched his ongoing war against Iran without congressional approval.
The decline comes as the conflict continues with no easy political resolution in sight.
Taken together, the numbers paint a troubling picture for Trump.
His overall approval is low. Republican approval has declined. Fewer of his own voters are confident they made the right choice. More say they have mixed feelings. And a growing share openly say they regret their vote.
Again, this isn’t a mass collapse of Trump’s political base. But it doesn’t have to be.
In a closely contested election, a relatively small number of voters changing their minds, or simply deciding not to vote, can make the difference.
That’s why the 15 percent figure may be the number political strategists are watching most closely.
