With mere hours left before the Nobel Peace Prize announcement, Norway is bracing for what could be the most bizarre diplomatic fallout in its modern history: the wrath of Donald Trump.
While much of the world watches with curiosity, some Norwegian politicians are on edge, fearing that if Trump doesn’t get the prize — which almost no one in Oslo expects he will — it could trigger retaliation from the U.S. president, The Guardian reports.
“Donald Trump is taking the US in an extreme direction,” said Kirsti Bergstø, leader of Norway’s Socialist Left party. “Attacking freedom of speech, having masked secret police kidnapping people in broad daylight and cracking down on institutions and the courts. When the president is this volatile and authoritarian, of course we have to be prepared for anything.”
That “anything” now includes the absurd but increasingly plausible scenario that Trump might brand Norway an adversary — not because of any real geopolitical dispute, but because an independent peace prize committee headquartered in Oslo doesn’t give him a golden medal.
“The Nobel Committee is an independent body and the Norwegian government has no involvement in determining the prizes. But I’m not sure Trump knows that,” Bergstø added. “We have to be prepared for anything from him.”
A Long-Running Obsession
Trump’s fixation on the Nobel Peace Prize isn’t new. In fact, it’s become something of a recurring theme. He’s previously griped that Barack Obama received the prize “for nothing” and has gone out of his way in speeches and interviews to claim he deserves one himself.
In July, he reportedly called Norway’s finance minister — Jens Stoltenberg, who also happens to be the former NATO secretary general — to inquire about the prize. At the UN just last month, Trump declared, falsely, that he had ended seven “unendable wars,” adding: “Everyone says I should get the Nobel peace prize.”
The problem, of course, is that the Nobel doesn’t work that way.
“Peace prizes are earned through sustained commitment, not through social media tantrums and not from intimidation,” said Arild Hermstad, leader of Norway’s Green Party.
He acknowledged that Trump supported the recent ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas — a rare moment of constructive diplomacy — but added, “One late contribution does not erase years of enabling violence and division.”
Indeed, the Nobel Committee had already made its decision on Monday — before the Gaza ceasefire was agreed upon — making any attempt by Trump to take credit for the timing even more strained.
Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, reiterated that the committee operates independently of any government, including Norway’s. “I know first-hand the committee acts completely independently,” he said, though he admitted that Nobel’s will — which stipulates the committee must be appointed by the Norwegian parliament — creates room for misinterpretation.
Potential Backlash: Tariffs, NATO, or Worse
It’s not just political drama — there are legitimate concerns that a snubbed Trump could retaliate in tangible ways.
Columnist and analyst Harald Stanghelle didn’t mince words. “He [Trump] is so unpredictable. I don’t want to use the word ‘fear’ but there is a feeling that it could be a challenging situation.”
Stanghelle warned that Trump could impose punitive tariffs, demand even higher NATO contributions from Norway, or — in a more theatrical move — declare Norway an enemy. “It’s very, very difficult to explain to Donald Trump or to many other countries in the world that it is a totally independent committee because they do not respect this kind of independence.”
If Trump were somehow awarded the prize, Stanghelle said, “it would be the biggest surprise in the history of the Nobel peace prize.”
Not Likely
Nina Græger, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, thinks that scenario is close to impossible. She believes front-runners for the 2025 prize include Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, the Committee to Protect Journalists, and the Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom.
“While he [Trump] clearly deserves credit for his efforts to end the war in Gaza, it is still too early to tell whether the peace proposal will be implemented and lead to lasting peace,” she said.
Græger also pointed out what others have tiptoed around: Trump’s broader record doesn’t square with the spirit of the prize. “Trump’s retreat from international institutions, and his wish to take over Greenland from The Kingdom of Denmark, a NATO ally, as well as infringements on basic democratic rights within his own country, do not align well with Nobel’s will.”
Brace for Impact
For most world leaders, losing out on a Nobel is not a diplomatic incident. But Donald Trump isn’t most world leaders. Norway — a country better known for fjords and quiet diplomacy than international spats — may now find itself in the crosshairs of one man’s obsession with personal legacy.
And if he doesn’t hear his name announced, don’t be surprised if the next tweet, truth social post, or press conference declares a new enemy of the people: Norway.
