A looming Supreme Court decision could blow a hole through a key piece of the Voting Rights Act—and with it, gut the Democratic presence across the South.
According to a new report shared with Politico by Fair Fight Action and Black Voters Matter Fund, Republicans could lock in control of the House by redrawing up to 19 congressional districts in their favor—if the Supreme Court overturns Section 2 of the VRA in an upcoming case that’s flying under the radar.
The case, Louisiana v. Callais, is set for rehearing on October 15, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Section 2 is the provision that explicitly prohibits racial gerrymandering that weakens minority voting power. Without it, states would be free to draw maps that dismantle minority-heavy districts—potentially wiping out dozens of Democratic-held seats.
The numbers are jarring: 27 total seats could flip in favor of the GOP, the report says, with 19 of those flips hinging entirely on the Court striking down Section 2. Those 19 seats alone would be enough to fortify a Republican House majority, regardless of what happens elsewhere.
“This would clear the path for a one-party system where power serves the powerful and silences the people,” said LaTosha Brown, co-founder of the Black Voters Matter Fund.
As the report states, if Section 2 goes, so could 30% of the Congressional Black Caucus and 11% of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Southern Democrats—especially Black and Latino lawmakers—would be hit hardest.
States like Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Mississippi could see every single Democratic representative ousted, according to the analysis. In Texas, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, and Florida, Democrats may hang onto one or two seats, but their overall delegations would shrink significantly.
It’s not just a map problem—it’s a power shift. And the Court could be the tipping point.
For decades, Section 2 has acted as a bulwark against racial discrimination in voting. Republican lawmakers have targeted it, arguing it unfairly favors Democrats and forces race into the redistricting process. The Supreme Court has mostly upheld the provision—until now. With a conservative supermajority and an increasingly skeptical view of the VRA, voting rights advocates are bracing for the worst.
“We’ve seen this Court chip away at the Voting Rights Act for years,” said Fair Fight Action CEO Lauren Groh-Wargo. “Now they’re preparing to finish the job.”
Groh-Wargo didn’t hold back: “The only way to stop it is to play offense — aggressively redraw maps wherever possible, focus relentlessly on taking back Congress, and be ready to use that power to pass real pro-democracy legislation and hold this corrupted Court accountable.”
The timing is crucial. While a ruling in time for the 2026 midterms is considered unlikely, it’s not off the table. Republicans are already in redistricting mode, with unusual mid-cycle redraws giving them six more favorable seats across just two states—and more are likely to follow.
With the VRA on the chopping block, GOP-controlled states are expected to rush into the redistricting process, potentially steamrolling over what’s left of federal protections. The report’s authors are calling for Democrats to act now, not wait for the decision.
“We need an aggressive and immediate response,” the report urges, pointing to the ongoing map shuffles as a warning sign. And while Democrats could potentially benefit in some blue states by redrawing maps of their own, the report notes that those opportunities are fewer and less impactful than what Republicans could gain in the South.
The stakes aren’t just about districts—they’re about democracy. The Supreme Court is about to decide whether racial discrimination in voting map design is something the federal government still has a say in. If not, the GOP could carve out a near-permanent majority in Congress—and decades of civil rights protections could be thrown out with the map.
