Donald Trump’s chances of serving a full second term are slipping, as anger over his handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case builds—especially among his own supporters.
UK bookmaker Star Sports cut Trump’s odds of completing his term from 2/5 (71.4%) last month to 8/15 (65.2%) this week. At the same time, odds of him leaving office this year rose from 20/1 (4.8%) to 8/1 (11.1%), according to Newsweek.
“The Jeffrey Epstein scandal is, for the first time, threatening Trump’s relationship with the GOP voting base and the wider MAGA Trump sphere,” said Star Sports political analyst William Kedjanyi. He directly linked the betting shifts to the growing backlash over Epstein.
It began on July 6, when the Department of Justice and FBI released a statement claiming Epstein had no “incriminating ‘client list’” and confirming he died by suicide in 2019. Many didn’t buy it—including some of Trump’s most loyal backers.
The situation escalated when The Wall Street Journal reported that Attorney General Pam Bondi had told Trump in May that his name appeared “multiple times” in Epstein-related files. The White House dismissed the report. “Another fake news story,” said Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung.
But that denial hasn’t stopped the bleeding. Trump’s support base—known for pushing hard on Epstein-related conspiracy theories—is now turning its scrutiny inward.
Trump himself has only added to the confusion. During his 2024 campaign, he told podcaster Lex Fridman he would have “no problem” releasing Epstein-related records. But after the DOJ and FBI statement, he pivoted, calling the issue the “Jeffrey Epstein Hoax” and blaming Democrats.
Facing criticism from the MAGA crowd, Trump walked it back somewhat, saying: “Based on the ridiculous amount of publicity given to Jeffrey Epstein, I have asked Attorney General Pam Bondi to produce any and all pertinent Grand Jury testimony, subject to Court approval.”
That line raised more questions than it answered. Grand Jury testimonies are often restricted and don’t include full evidence or supporting documentation—something critics were quick to point out.
The fallout deepened when House Speaker Mike Johnson abruptly adjourned the House for summer recess on Tuesday, just as lawmakers were pushing for a vote to release more Epstein-related documents. To many, it looked like a political maneuver to shield Trump.
“There are frustrations that Trump, having been one of the most vocal on this issue, has turned full circle against it,” said Kedjanyi. “A lot of his online followers are very disappointed at the lack of any movement and are upset at the way Trump has dismissed questions about Epstein.”
Trump’s support has long been seen as unshakable. But this time, cracks are showing. His refusal to take a harder stance—or follow through on his earlier promises—is costing him goodwill in parts of his base that have stood by him through nearly everything.
What comes next is unclear. But with Congress set to return from recess in September, pressure to release Epstein-related documents is expected to intensify—from both sides of the aisle.
And Trump, who once led the charge demanding answers, now finds himself dodging the same demands from his own supporters.
