The recent US-Russia summit in Riyadh has left Moscow with a clear advantage, as Russia continues to push its narrative that the war in Ukraine is a response to NATO’s aggression. This narrative was reinforced during the talks, which offered Russia several key diplomatic victories.
One of the most significant outcomes was the potential return to normal staffing levels at the American and Russian embassies. This follows years of escalating diplomatic expulsions, sparked by Russia’s use of a nerve agent on a former spy in the UK. The move signals a shift in diplomatic relations, with Russia slowly re-entering global talks and restoring some normalcy. This comes after other gestures, like the release of American teacher Marc Fogel from Russian custody.
Despite these developments, Russia and the US did not agree on a face-to-face meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin, a key part of Trump’s approach to ending the war in Ukraine. Moscow appears to be prioritizing its own interests, with a summit unlikely to happen soon.
For Ukraine, the summit was a disappointment. While the US did not push Ukraine into making hasty concessions, the issue of peace negotiations has been passed to other teams, which could delay any potential resolution. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz noted that both sides would need to accept territorial concessions and security guarantees, putting Ukraine in a difficult position on both fronts.
Ukraine’s frustration is palpable. President Zelensky criticized the summit, noting that his government learned about the talks through the media. He expressed anger over the lack of direct involvement in discussions that will ultimately affect Ukraine’s future.
Meanwhile, US officials, including Middle East Envoy Steven Witkoff, attempted to reassure European leaders that they were not being sidelined from peace talks. Witkoff denied claims that Europe was excluded, even though Zelensky later disagreed. In contrast, General Keith Kellogg, Trump’s Ukraine and Russia envoy, had earlier said that Europe would not play a role in negotiations due to past diplomatic failures. This left European leaders scrambling to prepare their own plans for the ongoing crisis.
The US’s shifting stance on Europe’s role has caused significant concern. In a troubling move, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recently stated that the US would no longer guarantee Europe’s security, a comment that has sent shockwaves through European capitals. With Russia’s growing nuclear threat, Europe now faces the unsettling prospect of defending itself without the assurance of US military support.
The broader US-Russia deal appears to benefit Moscow, reinforcing Russia’s claim that it is engaged in a defensive war against NATO. The summit has also allowed Russia to regain a degree of diplomatic respect, positioning the country as a peer to the US once again. This shift puts Ukraine in the background, with the peace process increasingly focused on the larger geopolitical picture.
Ultimately, the peace talks could result in Russia’s reintegration into the global community, leading to economic and diplomatic gains for Moscow. However, the cost could be Ukraine’s exclusion from critical negotiations.
The real issue, however, is what’s happening on the ground. Although the military gains have been costly, Moscow continues to advance, and time is increasingly in Putin’s favor—especially with the U.S. scaling back military support to Ukraine. The longer Europe takes to recalibrate and address these challenges, the more vulnerable Ukraine becomes, with both its sovereignty and morale at greater risk.
