Donald Trump has spent months boasting about an economic turnaround. “Prices are ‘WAY DOWN’ in the USA,” he wrote in August. He promised to kill inflation “on day one.” But according to a new Guardian/Harris poll, Americans aren’t buying it — literally or figuratively.
Nine months into Trump’s return to the White House, the economic picture looks nothing like the one he’s selling. Americans across party lines say prices are still soaring, inflation remains a top concern, and pessimism is growing — fast.
Pain at the Checkout, Not “Prices Down”
Trump’s posturing around inflation is directly contradicted by the experiences of most Americans. According to the poll, 74% of respondents said their monthly household costs have jumped by at least $100, and some reported increases as high as $749. That’s not a minor uptick — it’s a serious hit to household budgets.
Inflation, while technically down from the early pandemic-era peak, still sits at 2.9% — only a slight dip from January and still above the Fed’s target. Yet Trump has repeatedly insisted, “There is virtually no inflation,” and that prices have dropped.
The disconnect between his rhetoric and Americans’ reality couldn’t be clearer. In fact, 75% of Americans say prices are soaring, despite Trump’s repeated claim that he’s already “ended” inflation.
Pessimism on the Rise, Across the Board
The gloom is spreading. 53% of Americans now believe the economy is getting worse, up from 48% last year. Even more stark: 54% believe the country is already in a recession, despite Trump’s claims of a roaring comeback.
This isn’t just a Democratic critique. Inflation is seen as the number one threat to the economy by Republicans and independents, and the second-biggest concern for Democrats, just behind tariffs.
This widespread concern is reflected in the way Americans assess price hikes. Most Democrats (55%) and independents (55%) blame current government policies — and yes, that means Trump’s. Republicans, on the other hand, are more likely to say these are just standard inflationary trends. But even among GOP voters, confidence in the economy is fragile.
Tariffs and Taxes: Voters Aren’t Buying Trump’s Economic Plan
Trump’s economic playbook — mass deportations, tariffs, and tax cuts — isn’t inspiring much confidence.
Tariffs in particular are taking a beating. According to economists at the Yale Budget Lab, Trump’s tariffs will cost the average U.S. household an additional $2,300 a year. That’s about $191 a month — a brutal figure for families already stretched thin.
Yet the poll shows that tariffs are now seen as a major economic threat by 31% of Democrats and 24% of independents. Republicans still aren’t placing much blame on tariffs, but the pressure is mounting.
Even worse for Trump, his signature policies just aren’t popular. Mass deportations? Only 24% support. More tariffs? 22%. Tax cuts? Also 22%.
His most popular idea — eliminating taxes on Social Security — clocks in at 43% support, but even that hasn’t moved forward under his current administration.
Meanwhile, Democratic Proposals Still Win on Policy
Despite Democrats’ own problems with party support, their economic proposals are still resonating with voters.
The most popular? A federal ban on price gouging, especially for food and grocery prices — backed by 45% of Americans. Expanding the child tax credit and raising taxes on long-term capital gains for millionaires also remain well-liked. These numbers have stayed steady since last September.
Even as Democratic optimism dips (25% today, down from 37% last year), their ideas haven’t lost ground. That’s a critical distinction. People may not be thrilled with the party, but many still want their economic policies.
Independents played a major role in Trump’s 2024 win, flipping from favoring Biden by 9% in 2020 to a more even split. But now, they’re souring on Trump’s handling of the economy, too.
Last year, independents were more aligned with Republicans in their economic pessimism. Now, they seem to be landing somewhere between both parties — frustrated with economic conditions, but no longer clearly in Trump’s corner. 43% of independents now express pessimism about the Republican party, up 10 points from last year.
At the same time, 41% are pessimistic about the Democrats. This isn’t a vote of confidence — it’s a sign that neither side is winning them over.
The Bragging Isn’t Landing
Trump won the presidency again largely on a promise to fix the economy. “Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again,” he said in 2024.
But nearly a year into his second term, voters say the opposite has happened. Costs are up. Frustration is up. And despite all the campaign bravado, most Americans don’t feel like anything has gotten more affordable.
The poll paints a brutal picture for Trump: his loudest brag has become his biggest liability.
Americans aren’t just skeptical of the message — they’re living the reality.
