The 2026 Senate race is already heating up, and recent developments are making the battle for several seats even more intense. With retirements, new laws, and shifting political landscapes, here’s a rundown of the five Senate seats most likely to flip.
1. North Carolina
The biggest change on this list is in North Carolina. Republican Sen. Thom Tillis shocked everyone by announcing he won’t seek a third term. This opens the door wide for Democrats, who have long targeted this seat.
The Cook Political Report moved the race from “lean Republican” to “toss-up” after Tillis’s decision. This move could give former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) a chance to run, and he’s a strong candidate. Cooper has never lost a statewide race and could become the face of the Democratic push to take the seat.
On the Republican side, all eyes are on Lara Trump, a North Carolina native and wife of Eric Trump. Republican strategists believe she could win the nomination, but it’s unclear if she’ll run. “Lara Trump’s very viable,” said Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.), adding, “She’s from Wilmington, she went to the same high school as Michael Jordan.” Some GOP strategists see her name recognition as a key advantage in a close race.
2. Georgia
Georgia is another state where the GOP is struggling to recruit a strong candidate. Republican hopes of flipping the seat held by Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) took a hit when Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announced he wouldn’t run for Senate. This left the GOP scrambling to find a top-tier challenger.
Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) is already running, but many Republicans are still searching for a stronger candidate. Veterans Affairs Secretary Doug Collins is also being eyed as a potential contender. One Republican strategist put it bluntly: “Georgia’s going to be really tough… Ossoff is not the best candidate, but he’s figured out the way to make it work for himself.” Democrats are hopeful, especially since Ossoff raised $10 million in the last quarter alone.
3. Maine
Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) has had a tough time lately. She voted against GOP cuts to Medicaid and is facing accusations from Democrats that she’s trying to play both sides. “It’s a carefully orchestrated political ploy to keep her seat while cutting Medicaid and delivering tax giveaways to billionaires,” said Tommy Garcia, a spokesperson for the Maine Democratic Party.
Collins’s favorability rating is still positive, but the Democrats haven’t found a strong candidate to challenge her. Some are hoping Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) will run, but she’s been quiet on the idea. If Collins were to retire, Democrats would have a much better shot at flipping the seat.
4. Texas
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) finds himself in a tough spot. He’s facing a potential challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), who’s been a staunch ally of President Trump. Cornyn is trailing Paxton by double digits in some polls, and Republicans are getting nervous.
“Worried,” one GOP member said about Cornyn’s reelection chances. The GOP knows that Paxton is a polarizing figure and may struggle in a general election, but for now, it’s unclear if Cornyn can overcome the challenge. Cornyn’s team is working to launch a full-scale campaign to push back against Paxton, who has been involved in multiple legal scandals.
Republicans also hope that former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) will run against Paxton. “Right now, it looks like Ken Paxton wins that primary, at least on paper,” said a GOP operative. “The other thing that same piece of paper shows is that Colin Allred beats Ken Paxton.”
5. Michigan
With Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) retiring, Michigan has become a battlefield. Democrats are facing a messy primary with Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed all vying for the nomination. Early polls show Stevens as the slight favorite, but McMorrow and El-Sayed are close behind.
On the Republican side, former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) is the party’s preferred candidate, but he’s facing challenges. His fundraising has been underwhelming, and some Republicans question whether he can win in this cycle after failing to secure a victory last year. “I don’t know what changes that gives us an edge without him on the ballot,” said one Republican strategist.
Some Republicans still believe Michigan is trending their way, and while it’s been decades since a Republican won a Senate seat here, they think it’s within reach. “Michigan remains the more competitive battleground,” said a national Republican strategist.
With each of these races, the stakes are high, and both parties are gearing up for a fierce battle. The 2026 cycle is shaping up to be a pivotal one, with control of the Senate on the line.
