Republicans could be facing a devastating defeat in the 2020 elections as formerly solid red states are suddenly becoming competitive with Democrats gaining momentum with less than three weeks before the election. The Cook Political Report on Tuesday shifted Senate races in Georgia, Texas and Alaska, all with Republican incumbents, toward Democrats.
Cook changed its rating for the Texas Senate race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.” There, Sen. John Cornyn (R) faces Air Force veteran and former congressional candidate M.J. Hegar. Cornyn is ahead in the polls by single-digit, according to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average, but Hegar is quickly catching up.
In Georgia’s special Senate election, Cook shifted the race from “Lean Republican” to “toss-up.” Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) is defending her seat in a race that includes Rep. Doug Collins (R-Ga.) and Democratic candidates Raphael Warnock and Matt Lieberman. If no candidate achieves a simple majority, the top two will face a runoff on Jan. 5.
The Democratic vote in the election has largely consolidated around Warnock, a Baptist pastor who currently leads the field by 6.2 points in the RCP average of the race.
Georgia will also hold a standard Senate election for its other seat between incumbent Sen. David Perdue (R) and Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff.
Cook also shifted Alaska’s senate race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.” Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) is seeking reelection against Al Gross, an independent candidate backed by the state Democratic Party. Sullivan led by 4 points in the most recent survey, conducted Sept. 25-Oct. 4 by Alaska Survey Research.
Last week, the nonpartisan handicapper shifted the South Carolina Senate race from “Lean Republican” in favor of incumbent Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) to a “toss-up,” giving Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison a boost.
— Jessica Taylor (@JessicaTaylor) October 13, 2020