Republicans are staring down a brutal midterm landscape as Donald Trump’s record-low approval threatens to weigh heavily on candidates across the party.
A new CNN poll conducted by SSRS puts Trump’s overall job approval at 27%, while 67% disapprove. Just 13% strongly approve of his performance, another low in the poll.
And the biggest problem may be the issue voters care about most: the economy.
For Republicans, the timing couldn’t be more consequential.
Voters are paying more attention to the economy than they did heading into either of the previous two midterms. Sixty-eight percent of registered voters say the economy is extremely important to their vote, compared with 59% in 2022 and 44% in 2018.
But only 27% approve of Trump’s handling of the economy.
That’s down 22 points from September 2018, when Trump was also unpopular overall but still had a 49% approval rating on the economy.
Back then, the economy was something of a political shield for Trump.
This time, the numbers show it has become one of his biggest liabilities.
Only 28% of Americans now describe current economic conditions as good, compared with 69% at the comparable point before the 2018 midterms.
And voters aren’t just complaining about the economy in the abstract. A majority say they feel uncertain about their own finances, while nearly half report stress about their financial future.
Only 31% say they feel hope about their finances, while just 23% say they feel secure.
Then there’s the congressional ballot.
Among registered voters, 49% say they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, compared with 41% who would choose the Republican.
Among voters who say they are extremely motivated to vote, the Democratic advantage expands to 20 points.
Trump is also becoming a central factor in how voters describe their midterm decisions.
Forty-four percent of registered voters say their congressional vote will primarily be a message of opposition to Trump.
Only 19% say their vote will primarily be a message of support for him.
CNN says the 44% opposition figure is the highest recorded for an incumbent president in its midterm polling dating back to the George W. Bush era.
That puts Republican candidates in an awkward position.
Trump has repeatedly made clear that he wants the midterms to be about him. But the latest numbers suggest that is not necessarily an easy message for Republicans to carry into competitive races.
And some Republican candidates are already creating more distance between themselves and the president on major issues.
According to multiple reports, at least five Republicans running in competitive Senate and gubernatorial races have called for an end to the war in Iran.
The polling also shows that Trump’s strongest supporters aren’t quite as enthusiastic as they once were.
Among Republicans, 35% strongly approve of Trump’s job performance. That compares with 66% in September 2018.
Among all Americans, only 13% strongly approve of Trump, roughly half the 26% recorded a year and a half ago.
His weakest numbers are concentrated on issues that are dominating the midterm conversation.
Only 20% approve of his handling of inflation, 26% approve of his handling of the Iran war, and 27% approve of his handling of the economy.
None of the issues tested in the poll reaches 40% approval.
Republicans haven’t simply abandoned Trump, though.
The poll shows that his party’s voters remain substantially more supportive of him than the public as a whole. But even among Republicans, the intensity of that support has fallen from where it stood during his first term.
And voters aren’t exactly thrilled about the alternative.
Congressional Democrats and Republicans are both deeply unpopular, with roughly one-quarter of Americans approving of each.
Voters are also divided over whether a Democratic-controlled Congress would improve or worsen their own financial situation, the cost of living, corruption and foreign policy.
Democrats do have an advantage on health care, with voters saying by a 10-point margin that Democratic control of Congress would have a positive effect on health care policy.
But the economy is where the political shift is particularly noticeable.
Democrats lead Republicans by 8 points when voters are asked which party is closest to their own views on the economy. According to CNN’s poll, that’s Democrats’ strongest showing on the question in four years and Republicans’ weakest.
Elections, election integrity and voting rights are also high on the list, with 61% calling those issues extremely important to their congressional vote. Inflation and health care also rank highly, while issues including artificial intelligence, abortion and transgender policies register as less important to voters overall.
There is still plenty of uncertainty in all of this.
Polls capture voters’ views at a particular moment. They don’t determine what happens on Election Day, and voters’ decisions will ultimately depend on individual candidates, campaigns, turnout and events that have yet to unfold.
But the current numbers explain why Republicans are facing such a difficult political environment.
Trump’s approval on the economy is just 27% — and the economy has become the dominant issue for voters. At the same time, Democrats hold an eight-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot.
