With the special election in Florida’s 6th Congressional District fast approaching, Republicans are growing anxious about the possibility of a major upset. This district, which President Trump won by more than 30 points in 2024, is now seeing Democratic candidate Josh Weil pull ahead in the polls, forcing the GOP to take quick action.
Republicans are pulling out all the stops ahead of the election. In an effort to rally support, President Donald Trump called into two tele-town halls to help boost state Senator Randy Fine (R), the Republican candidate. Additionally, Elon Musk’s America PAC has invested over $76,000 into the race in recent days, including a $66,000 injection just this past Thursday.
These moves come as Weil has outpaced Fine in fundraising, and a recent internal poll from the Republican firm Fabrizio Ward shows Weil leading Fine by 3 points. While both parties agree that the district is heavily Republican and that Fine is still favored to win, the narrow margin of the race has raised alarms.
A close race would give Democrats a chance to claim discontent among Republicans in a district that is solidly Trump-supporting. For Republicans, however, the tightening of the race is a source of concern, especially given the party’s slim 218-213 majority in the House. The closer the race, the more difficult it becomes for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to push through key legislative priorities.
Trump himself expressed concern about the small GOP majority in a post on Truth Social, even pulling back Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-N.Y.) nomination for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. He stated, “We don’t want to take any chances,” referring to the need for reinforcements in the House.
Despite growing nervousness, most Republicans believe that Fine will likely win, but the question is how much of a victory he will secure. Democrats are already using the tight polls as evidence of trouble for the GOP in districts that were once seen as safe.
“These are races that should not under ordinary circumstances be on anyone’s political radar. They are safe Republican seats that Donald Trump won by more than 30 points,” said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.). “The American people are not buying what the Republicans are selling. That is why they are on the run.”
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) also warned that the race could show a troubling underperformance for Republicans, saying, “Regardless of the outcome, it’s going to be a way underperformance from what I won that district by in 2022 and what the president won it by in November.”
Some Republican strategists, however, believe Fine can still win comfortably, noting that his TV ads only started airing recently and that the Democrat’s early success is partly due to Weil’s significant spending. Fine’s supporters argue that with more time and additional spending from outside groups, he will pull ahead and secure a more decisive win.
Data from early and absentee voting has shown Fine slightly ahead, with some analysts predicting that GOP voters will turn out in larger numbers on Election Day, which could push Fine’s lead to a more comfortable margin.
Despite these signs of optimism, recent special elections in other states, such as Pennsylvania, where Democrats outperformed expectations, have kept this race unpredictable. In that election, Democrat James Malone won a state Senate seat in a district Trump had carried with 57% of the vote, further fueling Democratic hopes.
However, Florida’s GOP holds a significant advantage in voter registration, which could help Fine secure a stronger win. If Fine manages a solid victory, some Republicans argue that Democrats will have little room to spin the result into a win.
“If he wins by 10, then there’s no narrative,” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “But if he loses, it will create a major headache for President Trump.”
