Texas Republicans warned Donald Trump what could happen.
If Trump backed Ken Paxton over longtime Sen. John Cornyn, they told him before the primary, Republicans would likely have to spend heavily to make Paxton competitive in the general election.
Trump backed Paxton. Paxton won. And now Republicans are watching their nightmare scenario begin to take shape.
Democrat James Talarico has spent weeks dominating the Texas airwaves while Paxton’s campaign struggles to keep pace. The Republican nominee has spent a tiny fraction of what his Democratic opponent has spent on advertising, leaving Talarico with a valuable opportunity to introduce himself to voters while Republicans wait for Trump’s political operation to open its checkbook.
So far, it hasn’t.
“They keep saying they’ll spend, but they haven’t,” one senior Republican source involved in the discussions told The Washington Post.
That is becoming a serious problem.
The race could help determine which party controls the Senate, and polls are showing a contest that Republicans had hoped would be far more comfortable.
Since June, Democrats have outspent Republicans on advertising by roughly $31.5 million to $4.7 million, according to AdImpact data.
Talarico’s campaign accounts for nearly all of that Democratic spending, with about $31.3 million invested in advertising.
Paxton’s campaign?
Just over $150,000.
That’s an extraordinary imbalance in a statewide Senate race.
And it means Talarico has had something campaigns desperately want: the opportunity to define himself before his opponent has the resources to define him.
For weeks, Texas voters have been seeing Talarico ads emphasizing issues such as the cost of living.
The Democrat is a first-time statewide candidate, and the uninterrupted television exposure has given him an opportunity to introduce himself to voters across Texas.
Then he went on the attack.
On Saturday, Talarico launched his first negative ad against Paxton, targeting the Republican over allegations of corruption.
Republicans had warned this could happen.
One longtime Texas Republican operative said it was “frustrating to watch,” arguing that many Republicans had recognized from the beginning that Paxton would be a weaker general-election candidate than Cornyn.
The concern isn’t simply that Talarico is getting more television time.
It’s that he may be using that time to build support among voters Republicans desperately need.
One GOP strategist said Paxton continues to have a problem with “non-MAGA Republicans” who may not support Talarico but could simply stay home.
And in a close Senate race, voters who stay home can matter just as much as voters who cross party lines.
Where is Trump’s money?
This is where the Republican frustration really comes in.
MAGA Inc., Trump’s political organization, has more than $400 million in its war chest.
Before the primary, Republican leaders warned that a Paxton nomination would require the Trump operation to spend heavily in the general election.
But more than three months after the primary, MAGA Inc. still hasn’t publicly committed to a major Texas spending operation.
The group has begun ramping up its activities nationally, including an event Monday in Michigan featuring Vice President JD Vance.
A spokesperson said MAGA Inc. will host events around the country ahead of the midterms.
But Texas Republicans are waiting for something much more specific. Money.
Trump has finally started paying more attention to the state.
On Thursday, he headlined a Houston fundraiser and said he intended to help Paxton.
“I’m going to help Ken Paxton and I’m going to spend a lot of time in Texas,” Trump told reporters.
But the fundraiser was for the Republican National Committee, not Paxton’s campaign directly.
A recent Supreme Court ruling has given the RNC greater ability to coordinate spending with campaigns, something Republicans hope could help candidates like Paxton who are financially behind.
Still, nobody has said exactly how much Trump’s political machine plans to spend.
And time is running out.
Paxton isn’t pretending everything is fine. Earlier this month, he told Newsmax: “We’re a little behind on TV.”
Later, he insisted that help was on the way.
“It’s coming,” Paxton told Fox News, predicting that Republican senators and outside groups would begin pouring resources into the race.
Republican groups have indeed started spending.
At least four outside organizations had entered the television fight against Talarico as of last week, including the main pro-Paxton super PAC, Lone Star Liberty PAC, and Truth and Courage PAC, which is aligned with Sen. Ted Cruz.
A separate pro-Paxton group announced an 800,000 advertising blitz Friday.
But Republicans have a lot of ground to make up.
The early Republican attacks have focused on Talarico’s opposition to a 2025 Texas law restricting certain land purchases by people from China and other countries considered national security threats.
The bill passed the Texas House and was later signed into law by Gov. Greg Abbott.
Republican ads accuse Talarico of effectively helping China acquire Texas land.
One Truth and Courage PAC ad goes even further:
“Communist China is buying up Texas because Talarico sold us out.”
Talarico’s campaign has countered by pointing to Paxton’s own 2019 trip to China with other state attorneys general.
Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s America PAC is also being watched as a potential source of Republican money. The group has increasingly attacked Talarico on social media but has not disclosed whether it intends to spend heavily in Texas.
Talarico’s side isn’t sitting still.
Lone Star Rising PAC, his main supporting super PAC, launched its first general-election ads Tuesday as part of an initial seven-figure statewide streaming and digital advertising buy.
Those ads call Paxton “the most corrupt politician in Texas.”
The advertising war is finally heating up. But Talarico already has the head start.
Republican strategists have spent weeks arguing that Paxton needs a massive advertising campaign to counter the moderate image Talarico has been building.
One Texas Republican strategist said Talarico is currently “gaining the positives without the negatives,” particularly among independents and moderate Republicans.
The strategist expects that to change once Republican attack ads begin hitting voters with enough frequency.
“It has to become a drumbeat that voters can’t ignore,” the strategist said.
That’s precisely what Republicans don’t have right now.
They have money. They have outside groups. They have Trump’s endorsement.
What they haven’t had is the kind of sustained advertising operation needed to erase Talarico’s head start.
Sen. Tim Scott, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, insists Republicans aren’t worried.
“The strategy in Texas is strong,” Scott told CNN. “It’s going to be very well-funded.”
Scott also predicted Trump’s organization would become fully engaged.
But Republican strategists have been waiting for that money for months.
And every day Talarico remains on television while Paxton waits for reinforcements is another day the Democrat gets to shape the race.
That was the scenario Republicans warned Trump about before the primary. Now they’re living it.
And with the Texas Senate race tightening, the question is no longer whether Republicans will spend money.
It’s whether they’ll spend enough — and whether their ads will be enough to overtake Talarico.
