Former President Trump and Vice President Harris are locked in a tight race nationally, with both candidates polling at 47 percent among likely voters. However, Harris has gained a competitive edge in key battleground states, leading Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, according to two recent polls.
In Pennsylvania, Harris holds a narrow lead with 50 percent of likely voters supporting her compared to Trump’s 46 percent. This polling data, from The New York Times, Siena College, and the Philadelphia Inquirer, was primarily gathered before Trump faced a second apparent assassination attempt over the weekend.
Among registered voters nationwide, Trump has a slight advantage, leading Harris by 1 point, 47 percent to 46 percent. This result mirrors previous polls, indicating a consistent deadlock as the election approaches.
Harris’s support among crucial demographics is notable. She leads among women, garnering 53 percent to Trump’s 41 percent, and commands 56 percent of the youth vote (ages 18-29) compared to Trump’s 33 percent. Among Black voters, she receives a substantial 77 percent support, while Trump captures only 14 percent.
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Conversely, Trump maintains a strong lead among men, with 52 percent supporting him compared to 39 percent for Harris. He also leads among seniors aged 65 and older (50 percent to 44 percent) and white voters (53 percent to 43 percent).
In Michigan, Harris leads Trump by 5 points, with 52 percent support among likely voters compared to Trump’s 47 percent. She also shows strength among independents and nonwhite voters in the state. In Wisconsin, Harris leads slightly with 50 percent to Trump’s 49 percent, performing particularly well among independents and women.
The demographic trends in these battleground states mirror national patterns, with Harris leading among women and young voters. In Pennsylvania, she has the support of 57 percent of women, 61 percent of young adults, and 82 percent of Black voters. Trump, however, leads among men (53 percent) and white voters (51 percent).
Harris’s favorability ratings have also improved, rising to 51 percent in Pennsylvania from 42 percent in July, while nationally, 48 percent of likely voters view her favorably. Trump’s favorability has increased as well, with 47 percent of voters viewing him positively.
