As Donald Trump gears up for his second term, taking office on January 20, 2025, his allies and the private sector are quietly preparing for a sweeping crackdown on immigration that could reshape U.S. policy in ways unseen in modern history. The former president’s promises of mass deportations and expanded detention operations are already having a significant impact, sending the stocks of private prison companies like GEO Group and CoreCivic soaring, signaling an impending wave of detention contracts and infrastructure projects.
With Trump set to follow through on his campaign pledge to carry out the largest domestic deportation operation ever, the private prison industry is bracing for a windfall. Shares of GEO Group surged by more than 56% from Election Day through the week following Trump’s victory, while CoreCivic saw a 57% jump. Both companies have already begun positioning themselves to take on expanded government contracts for immigrant detention, anticipating the need for thousands of additional beds as Trump’s team prepares for massive deportations.
The Road to Mass Deportations
From the outset of his 2024 campaign, Trump made it clear that immigration would be a central issue of his second term. As he prepares to take power, his team is already laying the groundwork for one of the most aggressive immigration crackdowns in U.S. history, targeting millions of undocumented immigrants living in the country.
Trump’s immediate priority on January 20 will be to reinstate many of the hardline immigration policies from his first term, including border security measures like the construction of the border wall and the reinstatement of the “Remain in Mexico” policy. But perhaps the most striking aspect of his agenda is the planned deportation of undocumented individuals already living in the U.S.
Sources close to Trump’s transition team confirm that mass deportations will be a top priority. The administration will focus initially on undocumented immigrants with criminal records, but discussions have also included expanding deportations to include immigrants protected under the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, a move that could shift the political landscape and deepen divides over immigration.
Private Prisons Poised for Profit
As Trump moves forward with his plans, the private prison industry is preparing for a dramatic increase in demand for detention facilities. GEO Group, CoreCivic, and other private contractors who already operate detention centers for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) are expecting a surge in business, as the new administration plans to detain millions of undocumented immigrants while they await deportation.
“The GEO Group was built for this unique moment,” said George Zoley, the chair of GEO Group, referencing the company’s readiness to capitalize on the expected surge in detention needs. The company recently reported having 18,000 available beds in its detention facilities, many of which are currently idle. With Trump’s mass deportation plans set to roll out, these companies are preparing to expand capacity rapidly.
In an earnings call, Zoley also discussed the potential for future growth, pointing to increased demand for the company’s detention services and the possibility of scaling up its operations. CoreCivic echoed these sentiments, expressing confidence in its ability to meet the demands of a larger-scale deportation operation.
For these companies, Trump’s second term is seen as a major financial boon. The stocks of private prison companies, which had been relatively stagnant in recent months, have surged in anticipation of lucrative government contracts related to the expansion of immigrant detention. The market’s positive response highlights the expected profitability of Trump’s immigration agenda.
💰📈Trump’s mass deportation plan has private prison stocks skyrocketing on the prospect of highly profitable internment camps — including @GovBillLee’s pals over @CoreCivic 🫤 pic.twitter.com/nq6XKxwWcd
— The Tennessee Holler (@TheTNHoller) November 7, 2024
Plans for Detention Camps and Increased Deportations
While the private prison industry is preparing for a boom, the logistical challenges of Trump’s mass deportation plans are also becoming clear. The U.S. government will need to expand its capacity to detain immigrants, many of whom will be held in new, large-scale camps while they await deportation proceedings.
Trump’s allies have already discussed plans to build or repurpose detention centers that could house thousands of detainees at a time. These facilities would be used to detain undocumented immigrants for extended periods as they await deportation flights. Trump is also expected to use his executive powers to reassign federal agents, deputize local law enforcement, and deploy National Guard units to help carry out the raids, expanding the scope of enforcement across the country.
In a statement from senior Trump advisor Jason Miller, it was confirmed that Trump’s plan would focus not just on border enforcement, but on “interior enforcement,” targeting immigrant communities in cities and towns nationwide. As part of the operation, Trump plans to initiate massive raids, rounding up undocumented individuals from workplaces, homes, and other locations.
Legal Challenges and Diplomatic Hurdles
While the deportation operation is expected to ramp up quickly, the scale of the operation could face significant legal and logistical hurdles. Immigrant-rights groups are already preparing lawsuits to challenge what they see as violations of due process rights, particularly for those protected under DACA. The Biden administration’s previous attempts to curtail the program were blocked by the Supreme Court, and Trump’s new efforts to end DACA could face similar legal challenges.
Beyond the legal battles, Trump’s administration will need to navigate diplomatic hurdles as well. Deporting millions of people will require cooperation from foreign governments, which may not always be forthcoming. The logistics of deporting millions of immigrants, particularly from countries with strict travel document requirements, could slow the pace of removals.
Still, Trump’s team is determined to push forward, relying on aggressive executive actions and the reallocation of military funds, as they did during his first term, to bypass Congressional resistance. This includes repurposing military funds to build the infrastructure necessary for mass detention and deportation operations.
A Major Shift in U.S. Immigration Policy
With Trump set to take office in January, the U.S. is poised for a dramatic shift in immigration policy. The scale of deportations, the reliance on private prison contractors, and the creation of massive detention camps are set to define the Trump administration’s second term.
Critics, however, warn that the impact of such policies could be far-reaching, potentially destabilizing immigrant communities and tearing apart families. Todd Schulte, president of the immigration advocacy group FWD.us, called the proposed crackdown “xenophobic” and warned it would “rip apart nearly every aspect of American life,” including the economy, civil rights, and the nation’s reputation abroad.
For now, Trump’s supporters see the crackdown as a long-awaited fulfillment of campaign promises. As his inauguration approaches, all eyes are on the private prison industry, which stands to benefit from the new wave of detention and deportation contracts, and on the sprawling operations that will likely unfold in the coming months.
In short, the Trump administration’s mass deportation agenda is already underway, with the private sector lining up for what could be the largest expansion of immigrant detention and deportations the country has ever seen. As Trump prepares to take office, it’s clear that his second term will usher in one of the most aggressive immigration crackdowns in U.S. history—one that will have far-reaching implications for millions of immigrants and the broader American landscape.
