With less than four months before Election Day, Democrats appear to be as strong politically now as they were in 2018 when they reclaimed the majority in the House of Representatives and gained seven governorships.
According to ta new analysis conducted by Gallup, “Americans’ party preferences have shifted dramatically in the Democratic Party’s direction as voters’ dissatisfaction with Republicans continues to rise.
“What had been a two-percentage-point Republican advantage in U.S. party identification and leaning has become an 11-point Democratic advantage, with more of that movement reflecting a loss in Republican identification and leaning (down eight points) than a gain in Democratic identification and leaning (up five points),” Gallup found.
Fifty percent of Americans identify as Democrats or are independents who lean toward the Democratic Party while 39% are Republicans or Republican leaning independents. In January, 47% were Republicans or Republican leaners and 45% were Democrats and Democratic leaners.
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Currently, half of U.S. adults identify as Democrats (32%) or are independents who lean toward the Democratic Party (18%). Meanwhile, 39% identify as Republicans (26%) or are Republican leaners (13%).
These results are based on monthly averages of Gallup U.S. telephone surveys in 2020, according to Gallup.
Other times when Americans’ party preferences favored Democrats by more than 10 points over Republicans were:
In December 2012, after Barack Obama was elected to a second term and the nation dealt with the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting tragedy.
During George W. Bush’s second term as president, when his job approval ratings were low, Democrats’ average edge in party affiliation was 10 points or more. During this time, Democrats scored major victories in the 2006 and 2008 elections, which led to them having control of the White House and large majorities in both houses of Congress in 2009.
If the strong current Democratic positioning holds through Election Day, Democrats could build off their 2018 successes to possibly win the presidency and Senate in 2020.
