Recent polls have shown Vice President Kamala Harris gaining ground as she aims to defeat former President Donald Trump in the upcoming November election. Despite the slim chances of a landslide victory, Harris’s recent polling numbers offer a glimmer of hope for her campaign.
To achieve a landslide, Harris would need to secure almost all battleground states, including those Trump won in 2016 and 2020. This would require flipping states traditionally not in play for Democrats, such as Texas, which remains a long shot.
In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden won 302 Electoral College votes compared to Trump’s 232, with only a few landslide victories in the past 50 years. To surpass this, Harris would need to win approximately 320 Electoral College votes.
Historically, a significant victory like this is rare. For example, Barack Obama’s 2012 win saw him capture 332 Electoral College votes by winning key states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida. However, Florida and Ohio are no longer considered competitive for Democrats.
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States like Maine and Nebraska, which split their Electoral College votes between statewide and district-level results, could also impact Harris’s path to a landslide. Biden won three of Maine’s votes and one of Nebraska’s in 2020, with similar splits possible in future elections.
Key Battleground States
Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin: In 2016, Trump narrowly won these states, but Biden flipped them in 2020. Recent polls from FiveThirtyEight show Harris leading in Michigan (46.2% to Trump’s 42.8%), Pennsylvania (45.8% to 44.2%), and Wisconsin (47.3% to 44.1%). These states will be crucial for any potential landslide.
Arizona and Nevada: These states are showing tight races. In Arizona, FiveThirtyEight’s poll shows Harris leading slightly (45.1% to 44.8%). In Nevada, Harris is ahead with 44.5% compared to Trump’s 43.9%. Despite Biden’s narrow victories here in 2020, these states are still highly competitive.
Georgia and North Carolina: Georgia, a recent surprise for Democrats, shows Trump leading Harris narrowly (45.8% to 45.7%). North Carolina, traditionally Republican, shows a tight race with Harris and Trump tied at 46% in one poll, though Trump leads by 4% in another.
Texas: Although traditionally Republican, Harris is closing the gap with Trump. A recent ActiVote poll shows Trump leading by 6.6%, a decrease from previous polls. Winning Texas would be a major upset for Harris.
Florida and Ohio: Both states, once crucial swing states, now lean Republican. Trump leads Harris by 5% in Florida and by 10% in Ohio according to recent polls.
While Harris’s campaign is showing promise in key battleground states, achieving a landslide victory would require significant upsets and securing traditionally Republican strongholds.
