Vice President Harris maintains slight leads against former President Trump in five out of seven key battleground states, as per a recent Cook Political Report poll. The data shows Harris ahead by 3 points in Michigan, 2 points in Arizona and Wisconsin, and 1 point in Nevada and Pennsylvania, while Trump leads Georgia by 2 points and candidates are tied in North Carolina.
Including third-party candidates, Harris’s lead expands to 3 points in North Carolina and increases by 1 point in Arizona and Pennsylvania. Trump’s lead in Georgia narrows to 1 point, while other states remain unchanged. Overall, Harris leads by 1 point in head-to-head match-ups and by 2 points when third-party candidates are considered.
Despite Harris’s leads, shifts in key issues and demographics are notable. Trump holds a 5-point advantage on economic trust but is now tied with Harris on controlling inflation, a significant shift from his previous lead. His lead on immigration has also decreased from 14 points to 9, while Harris’s advantage among independents has shrunk from 8 points to 2.
Split-ticket voting potential remains high, with Democratic Senate candidates leading in varying margins across the states. In Michigan, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) holds a narrow 4-point advantage over her Republican challenger, former Rep. Mike Rogers, a decrease from an 8-point lead in August. In Pennsylvania, Senator Bob Casey (D) leads Republican David McCormick by 7 points, down from a 13-point margin just a month earlier.
Wisconsin’s Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) has a slim 2-point lead over Republican Eric Hovde, mirroring Harris’s margin over Trump.
In contrast, some states show more substantial advantages for Democrats. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Senator Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) both enjoy commanding 13-point leads over their Republican opponents, Kari Lake and Sam Brown, respectively.
In North Carolina, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein leads by an impressive 24 points against Republican Mark Robinson, following controversies surrounding Robinson’s past comments. The ultimate impact of split-ticket voting remains to be seen.
This indicates a broader trend of Democratic strength in key races across the region.
The poll, conducted from September 19-25 with 2,867 likely voters, has a margin of error ranging from 4.5 to 4.9 percentage points across the states.
