George Packer, a political analyst at The Atlantic, warns that Donald Trump’s movement may seem strong, but it’s actually more fragile than many realize—and it’s likely to fall apart soon. In his analysis, Packer believes that while Democrats should learn from Trump’s 2024 victory, they must avoid overestimating the strength of his coalition.
Packer argues that the so-called “Trump Reaction” is weaker than it appears. He suggests that the final months of Trump’s campaign were marked by chaotic behavior and a lack of clear vision for a second term. Instead of building a coherent administration, Trump is likely to surround himself with likeminded demagogues, opportunists, and fringe figures. As a result, Packer predicts that these individuals will clash, leading to infighting and dysfunction.
“Trump’s behavior in the last weeks of the campaign did not augur a coherent second presidency. He will surround himself with ideologues, opportunists, and crackpots, and because he has no interest in governing, they will try to fill the vacuum and turn on one another,” Packer writes.
A key reason for this instability is the contradictions within Trump’s coalition, which is made up of a diverse and often conflicting group of supporters. Packer notes that Trump’s policies, particularly on abortion and immigration, will likely alienate some of his newer supporters. He also points out that Trump’s economic agenda, which favors the wealthy, could leave working-class supporters feeling betrayed.
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Packer believes that this combination of overreach and internal divisions will cause Trump’s popularity to decline. By the time he reaches his 80s, he could find himself among the least popular presidents in U.S. history, as key parts of his base begin to turn away.
“The Trump administration, with a favorable Congress, will overreach on issues such as abortion and immigration, soon alienating important parts of its new coalition,” he argues. “It will enact economic policies that favor the party’s old allies among the rich at the expense of its new supporters among the less well-off. It’s quite possible that, approaching 80, Trump will find himself once more among the least popular presidents in the country’s history.”
While Trump’s movement may be weak, Packer stresses that Democrats must not underestimate the challenges ahead. He warns that the new administration will be extremely hostile to their values, and they must be prepared to fight back. This will require action not just from politicians, but from civil society, the private sector, and government institutions. Democrats and their allies will need to work together to prevent harmful policies, such as the mass deportation of migrants and restrictions on women’s rights, from taking hold.
“The opposition will have to act,” he urges. “Much of this action will involve civil society and the private sector along with surviving government institutions—to prevent by legal means the mass internment and deportation of migrants from communities in which they’ve been peacefully living for years; to save women whose lives are threatened by laws that would punish them for trying to save themselves; to protect the public health from Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the nation’s security from Tulsi Gabbard, and its coffers from Elon Musk.”
