NBC News reported Tuesday that former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath has won the Democratic nomination to take on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in November after holding off a late charge from progressive state Rep. Charles Booker in Kentucky’s Democratic Senate primary. Booer’s candidacy received the support of progressive lawmakers and groups.
The network declared McGrath the winner, a week after voters cast their ballots on June 23 in a primary election delayed and altered by the coronavirus pandemic. McGrath led Booker by roughly 7,000 votes ― 44.9% to 43.5% ― with more than 90% of ballots counted when the race was called.
McGrath will enter the general election armed with a massive campaign war chest after raising more than $40 million during the primary.chief Washington allies.
McConnell is arguably Donald Trump’s most critical ally and the Kentucky Republican gets to run for reelection in a state the president will win easily in November. But that doesn’t guarantee McConnell will win this fall.
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It would take an unconventional strategy by Democrats to pull off the upset and make McConnell the first Senate party leader to lose reelection since 2004, when Republicans knocked off Democrat Tom Daschle in South Dakota. Though, in this case, McConnell gets to run with the partisan lean of his state.
Virtually all of the reasons Democrats around the country loathe the GOP leader are assets to a Republican running in Kentucky. Carrying the president’s water and reshaping the judicial system for a generation by confirming judges may help likely Democratic nominee Amy McGrath raise millions, but they are not liabilities for McConnell.
But even if McGrath doesn’t win, her spending in combination with the Ditch Mitch movement will cause Republicans to spend money in Kentucky and divert resources from other competitive races. Senate Leadership Fund, the go-to GOP outside group for Senate races, has already reserved $10.8 million in TV ads through a group called “Keep Kentucky Great” to boost McConnell. That’s money that can’t be spent defending other, more vulnerable GOP incumbents or playing offense in a state such as Michigan.
The road in Kentucky is still difficult for Democrats. At the same time, McConnell still has work to do, and if the Democrats’ plan starts to work, the race rating will change accordingly. Remember, defeating McConnell is a luxury for Democrats. They’ve got a dozen better takeover opportunities and don’t need to win Kentucky to take control of the Senate. But you can bet they’ll take their opportunity to knock out one of their worst enemies if they can.
