Donald Trump is predicting a huge Republican victory at the ballot box in November.
Speaking to supporters at a rally in Ohio on Saturday, Trump urged Republicans to turn out in next month’s midterms and promised they would deliver a massive defeat to Democrats.
“You got to get out and vote. You got to get out. You got to vote for these guys,” Trump said.
“Just get out and vote. If you do that, we’re gonna win and we’re gonna win big and we’re gonna shove it up their a–,” Trump declared.
There’s just one problem with the confidence: The political landscape heading into November doesn’t exactly look like the Republican blowout Trump is predicting.
Trump is campaigning aggressively for Republicans as the midterms approach, but his approval ratings remain underwater and Democrats have opened up a significant advantage in the national House ballot.
A Quinnipiac University poll released Sept. 29 found that 51% of registered voters wanted Democrats to control the House after the election, compared with 39% who wanted Republicans to remain in charge.
Trump’s own numbers were even uglier.
Just 34% approved of the job he was doing as president, while 61% disapproved. His approval rating on the economy was only 31%, with 65% disapproving. On foreign policy, 34% approved and 62% disapproved.
And the Iran war isn’t helping.
Only 28% of Quinnipiac respondents approved of Trump’s handling of the situation with Iran, while 66% disapproved. The economy was also emerging as a major problem, with voters consistently expressing dissatisfaction over high prices and the cost of living.
Other recent reporting has similarly found Democrats gaining ground in races that once looked safely Republican, forcing GOP strategists to rethink where to spend their money.
So when Trump says Republicans are going to “win big,” he isn’t exactly describing the polling environment.
He’s making a prediction.
Which brings us back to 2024.
Trump’s confidence in beating the polls isn’t coming out of nowhere. His 2024 comeback was powered by an enormous Republican operation — and Elon Musk.
Musk’s involvement was hardly subtle.
He spent the final stretch of the campaign traveling to battleground states, urging voters to support Trump in exchange for money.
Musk’s America PAC ultimately spent roughly $200 million helping elect Trump, according to reporting based on people familiar with the group’s spending.
And Trump has openly bragged about Musk’s role.
After the election, Trump praised Musk for his work in Pennsylvania and said Musk “knows those computers better than anybody,” referring to “those vote-counting computers.” Trump then immediately pointed to Trump’s victory in Pennsylvania.
“And we ended up winning Pennsylvania like in a landslide,” Trump said, before thanking Musk.
That comment generated plenty of controversy and speculation online that Musk manipulated vote-counting machines or rigged the election.
What is indisputable is that Musk played an enormous role in Trump’s 2024 campaign, particularly through America PAC’s battleground-state turnout operation.
Incredibly, Trump won all seven major battleground states and returned to the White House.
Now Trump wants to do it again.
The difference this time is that Trump can’t run against Joe Biden.
He can’t campaign as the outsider promising to return to the White House. He’s the president — and voters are judging the results of his second term.
That’s why the economy, gasoline prices, Iran and the broader cost of living have become central problems for Republicans heading into November.
An AP-NORC poll conducted Sept. 24-28 found that 73% disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy, while just 26% of Americans approved. Only 17% approved of his handling of the cost of living.
Republicans are also facing competitive races in places that Trump carried comfortably in 2024. Reuters reported this week that Democrats are now competitive in 10 states Trump won by double digits two years ago, expanding the map and forcing Republicans to defend territory they once considered relatively safe.
And yet Trump stood before a crowd in Ohio and confidently declared that Republicans are going to “win big.”
The question is, will Musk work those “vote-counting computers” again, as Trump once suggested?
We’ll see.
