The September jobs report initially looked like a victory lap for the Trump administration. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent jumped on it immediately, crowing about a strong showing.
“America’s economy continues to defy expectations. 119,000 new jobs in September — the strongest gain since April,” Bessent posted on X. “The American worker is resilient, and our America First policies are driving a comeback built on strength, jobs, and opportunity.”
But a deeper dive into the numbers tells a far less flattering story. Though 119,000 new jobs sounds solid, the gains were concentrated in just a few sectors.
“Look at the breakdown. About 70 percent of the job gains came from healthcare and restaurants. A lot of industries are still shedding jobs,” wrote Heather Long, Chief Economist for Navy Federal Credit Union. She added, “Bottom line: The economy added an average of 44k jobs a month for the past 4 months. That’s barely ‘treading water’ and explains why unemployment is now 4.4%.”
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published the September report Thursday morning, delayed seven weeks due to the government shutdown. It confirms that while “nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 119,000 in September,” the figure “has shown little change since April.”
The report highlights gains in healthcare, food services, drinking places, and social assistance—but also notes “job losses occurred in transportation and warehousing and in federal government.” Unemployment ticked up from 4.3 percent in August to 4.4 percent in September, the highest since October 2021.
Adding to the skepticism, the BLS revised July and August payroll numbers downward. “Employment in July and August combined is 33,000 lower than previously reported,” the report says. Aaron Fritschner, deputy chief of staff for Rep. Don Beyer, stressed the need for caution: “The recent history of revisions warrants more skepticism and context for the topline job number for September than is being shown in the early jobs day headlines and news alerts.”
Jobs reports have become politically charged ever since Trump fired the BLS chief in July on what critics call trumped-up charges of issuing a “bad report” to hurt the president.
The October report will be missing entirely, since the household survey used to calculate unemployment wasn’t conducted due to the shutdown. Economists see this as a small reprieve for the administration: Goldman Sachs estimated the country lost 50,000 jobs in October, while Dow Jones sources expected the report to show a 60,000-job decline and unemployment rising to 4.5 percent.
Meanwhile, Bessent suddenly found his own job on the line. During a U.S.-Saudi investment forum speech, Trump said he’d fire him. While also targeting Fed Chair Jerome Powell over interest rates, Trump said, “The only thing Scott is blowing it on is the Fed. The rates are too high, Scott. And if you don’t get it fixed fast, I’m going to fire your a–.”
The September jobs report may have offered a momentary headline victory for the administration, but the underlying data exposes a much shakier reality. Gains are narrow, unemployment is rising, and economic momentum is tepid at best.
