In a surprising turn that’s rattling political cages on both sides of the aisle, Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa has announced that she will not seek reelection in 2026, ending her tenure after two terms in the Senate.
As noted by CBS News, this is no routine farewell. Iowa, once a battleground, has become a Republican stronghold—President Trump won the state by 13 points in 2024—and yet Ernst’s departure injects real volatility into the 2026 midterms.
Ernst’s exit reflects mounting internal and external pressure. Earlier this year, she faced scathing backlash at a town hall when, defending Medicaid changes, she quipped: “we all are going to die.”
That comment has become a focal point for Democratic criticism heading into the race.
Simultaneously, she encountered friction within her own ranks—losing a leadership race and drawing pushback from MAGA-aligned conservatives over her unwillingness to fully back Trump’s pick for Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth.
Despite her fundraising prowess—with millions raised—Ernst now steps aside, complicating Republican plans to defend the seat.
Democrats and Republicans alike are already positioning for the upheaval ahead. On the Democratic side, a crowded field has emerged:
State Sen. Zach Wahls
State Rep. Josh Turek
School Board Chair Jackie Norris
Market Director Nathan Sage
Meanwhile, on the GOP side: Jim Carlin, a former state senator, has already declared his primary challenge.
Rep. Ashley Hinson, widely seen as a frontrunner, is expected to enter the Senate race—an announcement anticipated by the end of September.
Domino Effect Across the State
Ernst’s departure comes after Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds—also a Republican—opted not to run again, signaling a broader political shake-up in the state. If Hinson jumps in, her current House seat may transform into a competitive race—a third vulnerability for the GOP.
On the national level, Democrats must net four Senate seats to reclaim control. Internally, they’re defending battlegrounds like Michigan and Georgia while eyeing pickups in redder turf, including Iowa .
Despite its rightward shift, the open nature of the contest gives Democrats breathing room—especially with unresolved baggage dragging Ernst’s campaign.
