For nearly 80 years, the United States has been the cornerstone of NATO, the military alliance that has kept Europe safe. But now, Europe is facing a troubling question: Can the US still be relied upon to protect its NATO allies?
President Donald Trump’s actions toward Russia have raised serious concerns. His public admiration for Vladimir Putin, his refusal to criticize the Russian leader, and his repeated challenges to NATO’s purpose have led many in Europe to question whether America is still a trustworthy partner. With the war in Ukraine still raging, Europe is starting to ask: Is the US truly committed to defending NATO countries, or is Trump’s subservience to Putin signaling a shift in US foreign policy?
While NATO without the US would be a significant challenge, it’s not completely helpless. The 31 NATO countries outside of the US still have over a million troops, modern weaponry, and the financial resources needed to defend themselves. Some experts believe that Europe could step up and take on more responsibility if necessary.
Ben Schreer, an expert from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, suggests that if European countries come together and invest in the right military equipment, they could create a formidable defense against Russia. “Europe alone still has the capacity to defend itself,” he says, but the real question is whether it’s willing to do so.
For over 75 years, the US played a key role in holding NATO together. US troops stationed in Europe were a key deterrent during the Cold War, and the US led NATO efforts in the Balkans in the 1990s.
But recently, Trump’s behavior toward Russia has caused alarm. His embrace of Putin, his admiration for the Russian leader, and his public animosity towards Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky have all raised red flags. Trump’s sudden withdrawal of US support for Ukraine further deepened concerns about his loyalty to NATO allies.
Dan Fried, a former senior US official, says Trump’s confrontation with Zelensky represents a shift away from the US’s long-standing global leadership. This, he argues, signals a deepening rupture not just with Ukraine, but with the values that have guided US foreign policy for decades.
John Lough, a former NATO official, believes that Trump’s actions reveal a troubling shift in US priorities. He argues that the US now views Europe less as an ally and more as a rival. “It simply feels that the United States sees Europe more as a competitor than an ally,” Lough said. This shift, he warns, could undermine NATO’s unity and leave Europe vulnerable.
Some in Europe have even begun to question whether the US should be considered an “enemy” rather than a partner, given Trump’s repeated efforts to weaken the alliance. But other experts believe that even without the US, Europe could become a stronger and more self-sufficient force.
Moritz Graefrath, a security expert, suggests that if European countries lose trust in the US, they will be forced to step up their own military capabilities. In fact, he believes that a US withdrawal could ultimately lead to a more independent and resilient Europe.
Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk seems to agree. He has said that Europe is strong enough to face Russia without US help and that the continent needs to believe in its own power. “Europe as a whole is truly capable of winning any military, financial, or economic confrontation with Russia,” Tusk said, adding that this belief is already beginning to take hold.
European countries have some of the largest and most capable military forces in the world. Turkey, France, Germany, and Poland all have strong armed forces, and many of these countries possess modern weapons that could challenge Russia’s. For example, the UK has two advanced aircraft carriers, while Russia only has one outdated carrier. European NATO countries also have advanced fighter jets, powerful tanks, and missiles that could deter Russian aggression.
Europe is already taking steps to strengthen its military forces. Several countries have come together to develop new weapons and increase their production capacity, making Europe less dependent on the US for defense. Even without US support, Europe is preparing to defend itself.
If the US were to leave Europe, it would still leave behind important military infrastructure. The US has 31 permanent bases across Europe, which could remain operational and be used by European countries if necessary.
Some experts believe that Trump’s threats to withdraw from NATO are just a strategy to push European allies to increase their defense spending. This isn’t the first time Trump has tried to reduce US military commitments. During his first term, he also suggested pulling US troops out of South Korea, leading to concerns about North Korea’s nuclear weapons. However, after talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un failed, the US kept its troops in South Korea.
The same could happen in Europe if Trump doesn’t get what he wants from Putin. NATO could continue to function, and Trump’s threats could eventually be seen as just a temporary challenge. “If Putin tries to mess with Trump too much, even Trump might recognize that,” said Schreer.
As Europe faces these uncertainties, one thing is clear: Trump’s ongoing subservience to Putin is forcing European leaders to reconsider their reliance on the US and think about how they can defend themselves without America’s help.
