Donald Trump launched a scathing attack on renowned Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer after a recent survey showed him trailing Vice President Kamala Harris in the critical swing state. The poll, which was conducted by Selzer and published on Saturday by The Des Moines Register and Mediacom, found Harris leading Trump by three percentage points, 47% to 44%. The result stood in stark contrast to other recent polls, but Selzer’s credibility in Iowa polling raised alarm bells for the Trump campaign.
Trump, clearly rattled by the poll, took to his Truth Social platform to blast Selzer, accusing her of publishing a “fake” poll. “One of my enemies just puts out a poll—I’m three down,” Trump wrote, dismissing the result as an outlier. He insisted that all other polls showed him leading by a comfortable margin and claimed he was “10 points up in Iowa.” At a campaign stop in Pennsylvania, he further downplayed the significance of the survey, suggesting it was a deliberate attempt to mislead voters right before the election.
The Trump campaign quickly followed up with a memo calling Selzer’s poll a “clear outlier” and pointed to an Emerson College poll released on the same day, which showed Trump leading Harris by 10 points in Iowa.
However, Selzer, whose polling has consistently been praised for its accuracy in forecasting Iowa results, didn’t back down. Appearing on Morning Joe Monday, she responded directly to Trump’s criticism, acknowledging that the poll was a surprising one but defending its validity.
“I’ve been shocked since Tuesday morning last week,” Selzer admitted. “No one, including me, would’ve thought that Iowa could go for Kamala Harris.” She explained that her polling method, which she calls “polling forward,” aims to forecast future election outcomes by analyzing current data rather than relying on past election trends or assumptions about voter behavior.
“I give credit to my method for my track record,” Selzer continued, pointing out that unlike other polls, such as Emerson’s, her methodology doesn’t adjust for past turnout or exit polls. “I’m trying to get out of the way of my data and let it tell me what’s likely to happen with the future electorate,” she said.
Selzer also made it clear that her approach had not changed since 2016 or 2020, when her polls accurately predicted Trump’s victories in Iowa. “This method is the same method we used in 2016 and 2020 to show Trump winning,” she said. “So it’s not the poll, it’s what the poll is saying that he doesn’t like.”
Her defiant response highlights the growing tension between the Trump campaign and the Iowa polling community, as the state remains a pivotal battleground in the 2024 election.
Watch Selzer’s commentary below from MSNBC:
"No one, including me, would have thought that Iowa could go for Kamala Harris." –@jaselzer discusses new polling showing Harris leading Trump by three points in latest Iowa poll pic.twitter.com/qG5qsk45BD
— Morning Joe (@Morning_Joe) November 4, 2024
