Prominent election forecaster Nate Silver is sounding the alarm for Americans to prepare “contingency plans” in anticipation of a possible Trump victory in the closely contested 2024 presidential election, which he describes as a “toss-up.”
In an interview with The Guardian, Silver stated, “One potential advantage of having a forecast that says … it’s 50/50, is that people should be making their contingency plans, like, right away. It doesn’t mean you need [to stockpile] ammo and peanut butter, but it means, you know: what’s your strategy to protect American institutions in the event of a Trump second term?”
Silver warned that Americans should also think ahead to future elections, suggesting that liberal donors begin funding initiatives to safeguard democracy rather than simply contributing to well-resourced candidates.
With less than 50 days until Election Day, Silver’s model indicates a competitive race. Currently, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a slight lead over Trump in national polling averages, with a 2.9% advantage. He also forecasts a 63% probability of Harris winning swing state Michigan and a 57% chance in Pennsylvania.
Silver’s call for strategic planning underscores the urgent need for Americans to remain proactive in protecting democratic institutions as the election draws near.
