Ray Dalio isn’t mincing words. The billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates says the United States is heading into dangerous territory — and fast.
“This could be much worse than a recession,” Dalio said in a blunt interview on NBC’s Meet the Press. His warning: the country is on the brink of a major economic crisis, driven by political chaos, ballooning debt, and aggressive trade policies.
Dalio, who famously predicted the 2008 financial meltdown, says Trump’s new wave of tariffs is rattling global markets and making it nearly impossible for businesses to plan.
“The disruptive nature of these things is making it very difficult for the rest of the world and Americans to rely on the U.S.,” he told Kristen Welker.
He compared today’s situation to one of the darkest economic periods in modern history. “We are having profound changes in our domestic order […] and we’re having profound changes in the world order. Such times are very much like the 1930s,” Dalio said.
His point? This isn’t just a downturn. This is about deep cracks in the system.
He laid it out plainly: “If you take tariffs, if you take debt, if you take the rising power challenging existing power… those changes in the orders, the systems, are very, very disruptive. How that’s handled could produce something that is much worse than a recession. Or it could be handled well.”
But Dalio doesn’t sound optimistic. With the U.S. national debt now over $36 trillion, he says the country is facing a ticking time bomb. “We have a breaking down of the monetary order,” he warned. “We are going to change the monetary order because we cannot spend the amounts of money [we want].”
His solution? A hard line on spending. “I believe that members of Congress should take the pledge, what I call the 3 percent pledge… If they don’t, we’re going to have a supply/demand problem for debt at the same time as we have these other problems. And the results of that will be worse than a normal recession.”
Dalio’s comments come at a volatile time. The stock market took a hit last week, with tech stocks plunging after Trump’s White House rolled out a flurry of conflicting tariff announcements.
In a move that briefly calmed Wall Street, the administration late Friday carved out exemptions for key tech products like smartphones and solar cells. But the relief didn’t last. Just two days later, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick warned those exemptions could be yanked within months.
With the White House sending mixed signals, no one — including top officials — seems sure if the sweeping tariffs will stick or fade away. As Dalio puts it, the uncertainty is part of the problem.
And it’s not just finance experts raising red flags. Business leaders see a long-term shift taking shape.
“What we’re seeing now is a structural shift, driven by policy, that’s likely to be long-lasting,” said Felix Stellmaszek of Boston Consulting Group. “This may well be the most consequential year for the auto industry in history… it’s forcing fundamental change in how and where the industry builds.”
Dalio’s message is clear: if leaders don’t act wisely — and soon — the U.S. won’t just slide into a recession. It’ll face something far worse.
Watch Dalio’s interview below from NBC’s Meet the Press:
