Donald Trump is facing serious trouble with voters, and it could cost Republicans big in the 2026 midterms.
His university’s new poll shows Trump has a net -20 approval rating—six points worse than just a few months ago in April. The poll, conducted with 1,000 people in late July, also shows a sharp drop among men: down from 48% approval in April to just 39% in July.
On key issues, voters are giving him failing marks. Only 41% approve of how he’s handled immigration, down from 50%. Economy and jobs are even worse: 37% approval on jobs, and 41% on inflation, both sharply negative.
The Jeffrey Epstein scandal is proving to be particularly damaging. A full 70% of Americans believe he has handled the Epstein case “not too well” or “not well at all,” while 63% think his administration is hiding information.
Speaking on the Politics War Room podcast, political science professor Alexander Theodoridis of UMass Amherst called Trump’s approval numbers “low and concerning.”
“This is really bad news,” said Democratic strategist James Carville on the podcast.
Theodoridis added, “There’s material out there that Democrats can find success in 2025 and 2026 with mostly just in frustration with the current administration and with Congress.”
That frustration appears to be growing. A YouGov poll for The Times showed Trump’s disapproval rating rose from 52% in April to 57% in July.
Meanwhile, an analysis by Newsweek shows that Trump only has a positive approval rating in 18 of the states he won in 2024—and a negative one in 13 of them.
Theodoridis pointed to key issues driving discontent: Trump’s handling of the Epstein case and his response to the war in Ukraine. “There’s a negative feeling about things,” he said. “People don’t like chaos.”
Heath Brown, a public policy professor at CUNY, said, “These numbers are concerning if you believe the public’s approval of the President’s agenda and actions matter… When polls move in the negative direction it suggests the public is losing confidence in the President.”
With midterms just over a year away, a wave of dissatisfaction is rolling across the country. If voters coalesce around that negativity in 2026, Democrats could net themselves a big midterm win—simply riding voter backlash against a President voters increasingly distrust and disapprove of.
