Donald Trump’s chances at winning the election in November and serving a second term are starting to look less and less likely by the day.
According to polling analyst Harry Enten, Trump is getting ready to lose the female vote by a “historic margin.”
Enten has reviewed polling of the last 70 years and came to the conclusion that Trump’s chances at reelection are quite slim.
The pollster wrote on CNN, “[Joe] Biden is leading among female registered voters by 59% to 35%, a 25-point margin when the numbers aren’t rounded. That’s a significant increase from his 19-point advantage earlier this year and the 14-point lead Hillary Clinton had in the final 2016 preelection polls of registered voters. Clinton had a 13-point edge with likely female voters.”
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Enten notes that — should those numbers hold up — Biden would beat the high watermark voting totals achieved by both former President Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon.
“The only year that comes close to what we see in the polls right now is 1964. That year, Democrat Lyndon Johnson won nationally by 23 points overall, and Gallup had him taking the women’s vote by 24 points,” he wrote. “Biden’s doing a point better than Johnson did among female voters, even as he is doing 13 points worse overall. In no other year since 1952 did the Democratic nominee win among female voters by more than 15 points. (If we look at Republican nominees as well, Richard Nixon won the women’s vote by 24 points in 1972 as he won nationally by 23 points.)”
What keeps Biden’s numbers against Trump from being overwhelming is the fact that president still does better with men, with the pollster writing, “Perhaps what makes Biden more impressive with women is how weak he is with men. He’s seen only a 2-point climb with them from earlier this year and is still losing them to Trump by 6 points. That’s about how Clinton did with them in the final 2016 preelection polling. Clinton trailed by 5 and 7 points among registered voters and likely male voters, respectively.”
Enten goes on to note that if Biden holds this lead among female voters he’ll have a higher chance at winning in November – as female voters tend to show up at a higher rate than male voters.
“Still, you’d rather have women on your side than men for the simple reason that they make up a slightly larger share of voters. Biden’s overall advantage would be about a pointless if women and men made up an equal share of the electorate. That doesn’t matter at this moment, but it could if the polls tighten up,” he wrote before concluding, “For now, all we can say is if this election were just left up to men, we’d be talking about a clear Trump lead instead of what it is in reality: a big Biden advantage.”
