Donald Trump insists in propagating the falsehood that he emerged victorious in Georgia during the 2020 election. Now, he has introduced a fresh baseless assertion in support of this longstanding fallacy.
Despite facing impending legal actions in Fulton County for his attempts to overturn the 2020 election results against Joe Biden, Trump continues to promulgate his distorted version of events in Georgia. Over the weekend, he took to social media to declare that despite winning the state in 2016 and touting his accomplishments as president, along with an increased vote count in 2020 compared to 2016, he curiously and “shockingly, ‘LOST’ Georgia” – notably using quotation marks around the term “lost.”
Expanding on his claim, Trump asserted, “All this despite winning nearby Alabama and South Carolina in Record Setting Landslides.” He concluded his statement by posing the question: “Does anybody really believe I lost Georgia? I DON’T!”
In reality, Trump’s assertion about winning Georgia is false; he lost the state by a margin of 11,779 votes in 2020. Moreover, his claim of record-setting victories in South Carolina and Alabama is far from accurate. In South Carolina, Trump’s victory margin in 2020 diminished by approximately 2.6 percentage points compared to his 2016 performance. Similarly, his 2020 margin in Alabama reduced by about 2.3 percentage points from 2016. These figures clearly contradict any notion of “Record Setting Landslides.”
Contrary to Trump’s insinuations, his performance across these states was not consistent. In fact, the decline in his Georgia margin between 2016 and 2020 was more pronounced (approximately 5.4 percentage points) compared to the relatively smaller declines in South Carolina (about 2.6 points) and Alabama (about 2.3 points). This discrepancy can be attributed to the inherent differences between states – factors such as social, economic, and political dynamics can lead to variations in voting outcomes.
Audrey Haynes, a political science professor at the University of Georgia, rejected Trump’s oversimplified reasoning, noting that assuming states with proximity would yield identical results is flawed, as they possess distinct characteristics that influence voting behaviors.
Comparable scenarios of election result disparities exist beyond these three states. For instance, Trump experienced a significant loss in Minnesota by about 7.1 points in 2020, while simultaneously securing a substantial win in neighboring North Dakota by about 33.4 points. These divergences do not imply wrongdoing; they are a reflection of the distinctiveness between states.
The differences among Georgia, South Carolina, and Alabama are multi-faceted. Trump’s 2020 margin of victory in South Carolina, about 11.7 percentage points, is notably less than historical examples, including Franklin D. Roosevelt’s landslide victories in the state during the 1930s. Similarly, Trump’s 25.5-point victory in Alabama in 2020 falls short of precedents set by Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.
The explanation for varying results is rooted in the unique characteristics of each state. Georgia underwent demographic shifts, experiencing increased racial diversity due to population influx, particularly in Atlanta and its suburbs. This contrasts with South Carolina and Alabama, which experienced limited changes in racial composition. Such differences in racial and educational demographics, along with the intensity of political efforts, contributed to the varied outcomes in these states.
Trump’s claims of victory in Georgia and record-setting wins in South Carolina and Alabama are without factual basis. The discrepancies in his performance between states can be attributed to their distinct sociopolitical trends and demographics.
There were numerous additional factors at play —too many to list here. For one, Georgia was the focus of an intensive Democratic voter registration and persuasion effort in the years leading up to the 2020 election that did not have an equivalent in Alabama or South Carolina.
