President Donald Trump and his Republican allies started 2019 with hopes that they might be able to pick up the 18 seats they needed to retake the majority they lost in 2018 while keeping the Senate and the White House. But those hopes are gone with just 100 days until the 2020 election.
Trump is in a perilous position as his reelection bid against Democrat Joe Biden enters a pivotal stretch.
A new poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds Trump’s approval for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic falling to a new low, with just 32% of Americans supportive of his approach. Even Trump’s standing on the economy, long the high water mark for the president, has fallen over the past few months after seeming ascendant earlier this year.
The poll makes clear the challenge ahead for Trump on that front: 8 in 10 Americans say the country is heading in the wrong direction. That’s more than at any point since Trump took office. The poll also finds just 38% of Americans say the national economy is good, down from 67% in January, before the pandemic upended most aspects of everyday life.
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Those political headwinds have sparked a sudden summer shift in the White House and the Trump campaign. After spending months downplaying the pandemic and largely ignoring the virus’ resurgence in several states, Trump warned this past week that the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better.
After repeatedly minimizing the importance of wearing masks to limit the spread of the virus, Trump urged Americans to do exactly that. And after insisting he would press forward with a large campaign convention in August, the president announced that he was scrapping those plans.
Trump’s abrupt about-face underscores the reality of the situation he faces just over three months from Election Day. Even as he tries to refocus his contest with Biden on divisive cultural issues and an ominous “law and order” message, Trump’s reelection prospects are likely to be inextricably linked to his handling of the pandemic and whether voters believe the country will head back in the right direction under his leadership.
At this point, given Trump’s dismal poll numbers nationally, and especially in the suburbs, the goal for House Republicans is to avoid a sort of landslide loss of seats that might relegate them to the minority for the next decade.
It’s not entirely clear if they will be able to avoid that nightmare scenario.
Earlier this month, the Cook Political Report, a non-partisan campaign tipsheet, moved 20(!) seats in a single day — all in Democrats’ favor.
