Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris in three pivotal Sun Belt states, according to recent polls released by The New York Times and Siena College.
In Arizona, Trump leads Harris by 5 points, with 50% of likely voters supporting him compared to 45% for Harris. In Georgia, he holds a 4-point edge, garnering 49% to Harris’s 45%. North Carolina shows a tighter race, where Trump leads by just 2 points, at 49% to Harris’s 47%.
This shift marks a decline in Harris’s support since early August, when she experienced a boost following President Biden’s withdrawal from the race and her ascension as the Democratic candidate.
In Arizona, registered voters now favor Trump, 49% to 45%, reversing last month’s results where Harris led by the same margin. In Georgia, Trump’s lead has shifted to 48% versus Harris’s 44%, up from a tie in the previous poll. North Carolina reflects a similar trend, with Trump leading 48% to Harris’s 47%, a change from her earlier advantage.
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However, political experts caution that determining the true frontrunner in swing states remains elusive, as many polls indicate a tight race between Harris and Trump, with results falling within the margin of error.
These developments are promising for the Trump campaign, particularly in North Carolina and Georgia, which are crucial for his bid to reclaim the presidency. While losing these states would complicate Harris’s path to victory, it remains theoretically possible for her to win without them.
Recent averages from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill show a very close contest overall, with Trump leading by just 0.1 points in both Arizona and Georgia, and by 0.5 points in North Carolina.
The polling took place from September 17-21, 2024, and included 713 registered voters in Arizona, 682 in Georgia, and 682 in North Carolina, with margins of error ranging from 4.2 to 4.6 percentage points among likely voters.
